MikeBishop

Karma: 7

MikeBishop 6 Sep 2022 20:34 UTC
1 point
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on: [Cause Exploration Prizes] Crime Reduction
What about ankle bracelet surveillance as an alternative to incarceration? More humane, lower cost and appears to reduce recidivism as well (vs. prison). I’m bullish, but eager to hear opposing points of view. Including possible effects on e.g. risk of totalitarianism.

1. Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending? by Williams and Weatherburn
Abstract: We evaluate electronic monitoring as an alternative to prison for nonviolent offenses. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in sentencing outcomes generated by quasi-random assignment of judges, we find electronic monitoring reduces reoffending at both extensive and intensive margins. Compared with prison, electronic monitoring is estimated to reduce the probability of reoffending by 22 percentage points five years after sentencing and by 11 percentage points ten years after sentencing, with the cumulative number of offenses reduced by 40% ten years after sentencing. These results demonstrate that electronic monitoring has sustained crime-reducing effects.
2. Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring by Di Tella & Schargrodsky
Abstract: We study criminal recidivism in Argentina by focusing on the rearrest rates of two groups: individuals released from prison and individuals released from electronic monitoring. Detainees are randomly assigned to judges, and ideological differences across judges translate into large differences in the allocation of electronic monitoring to an otherwise similar population. Using these peculiarities of the Argentine setting, we argue that there is a large, negative causal effect on criminal recidivism of treating individuals with electronic monitoring relative to prison.
Rob Wiblin inspired twitter discussion.

MikeBishop 31 Aug 2022 17:34 UTC
1 point
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on: Intelligence failures and a theory of change for forecasting
Great post! I promoted it here: https://twitter.com/thatMikeBishop/status/1565029542867206144?s=20&t=ZQXtbMgTLDu7d27KffZe0g

MikeBishop 23 Jun 2022 17:11 UTC
8 points
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on: User-Friendly Intro Post
How about the same for individuals?
Is their an EA-oriented public resource covering:
- Personal website best practices (don’t have one years out-of-date like mine!)
- Social media
- Is paid advertising ever worthwhile?