Interesting link of ideas! A few thoughts:
- Nassim Taleb’s conceptualisation of antifragility seems related to the institutional buffer.
- Arguing that under the assumption of strong epistemic cluelessness, consequentialist agents depend on Pascal’s wager type scenarios to choose longtermist policies: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-023-04153-y These wagers might take the form of: https://philarchive.org/rec/BALPMS
https://longtermrisk.org/files/Bracketing_Cluelessness.pdf offers an argument for salvaging cluelessness through isolating certain mechanisms of foresight.
Also, Kemp & Cremer in their X-risk paper argue for existential risk to be measured through systemic risk analysis instead of what they call “hazard-centric” risk analysis, as isolating risks (eg CBRN, ASI) may lead to ignoring common contributing factors to the risks. That lens lends itself well to “institutional buffer”—type interventions for minimizing cascade risks.
What do we think of PlayPumps?