And what you optimise for should depend on what you’re writing. Sometimes I primarily optimise for A) making readers have true beliefs about what I believe. Other times I primarily optimise for B) providing readers with tools that help them come to their own conclusions.
When I’m doing B, it doesn’t matter what they believe I believe. If out of ten things I say, nine will be plain wrong, but one thing will be so right that it helps the reader do something amazing with their lives, I consider that a solid success.
cf. https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/26/rule-genius-in-not-out/
Disclaimer: I didn’t read the whole post
But taking just this wager:
You should accept this wager, since if moral realism is false then by definition it doesn’t matter whether anyone is tortured or not.
I didn’t follow the meaningfulness to the argument of the natural/non-natural distinction but from this quote it looks like your view doesn’t depend on it:
The perception you notice is just an intuition against moral non-realism. If moral realism isn’t true, it doesn’t matter what you want.