Terrible advice. I did that, became a Superforecaster. Checked a bazillion boring facts. Came to the conclusion of a 1% AI X-Risk in the XPT tournament, together with many of my thoughtful peers.
Then our (repeated, active) attempts to actively engage and foster a dialog with the “AI experts” in the tournament went to nowhere. There was disagreement at the end of the tournament. All the pundits, once results went up, said surely this can’t possibly be. Pundits also missed that in areas where we did engage in productive reasoning with actual experts during the tournament (cough cough nuclear X-risk) there was a lot of agreement in the end.
Motivated reasoning beats boring each time. Become a pompous self promoter, please! EA needs more egomaniacs!
Terrible advice. I did that, became a Superforecaster. Checked a bazillion boring facts. Came to the conclusion of a 1% AI X-Risk in the XPT tournament, together with many of my thoughtful peers.
Then our (repeated, active) attempts to actively engage and foster a dialog with the “AI experts” in the tournament went to nowhere. There was disagreement at the end of the tournament. All the pundits, once results went up, said surely this can’t possibly be. Pundits also missed that in areas where we did engage in productive reasoning with actual experts during the tournament (cough cough nuclear X-risk) there was a lot of agreement in the end.
Motivated reasoning beats boring each time. Become a pompous self promoter, please! EA needs more egomaniacs!