we could also assume that Emily only might have shoulder pain if she takes the shot
Yeah, if we’re clueless whether Emily will feel pain or not then the difference disappears. In this case I don’t have the pro-not-shooting bracketing intuition.
On B and C, we’re actually clueful on the out-bracket (the terrorist dwarfs Emily, so it’s better to shoot in expectation)
I was thinking on C we’re clueless on the out-bracket, because, conditional on shooting, we might (a) hit the child (bad for everyone except Emily), (b) nothing (neutral for everyone except Emily) or (c) the terrorist (good for everyone except Emily), and we’re clueless whether (a), (b) or (c) is the case. I might misunderstand something, tho.
I notice you recently reported a slightly lower figure of 3 million DLES here, and in the accompanying research paper:
The difference doesn’t matter much in itself, I guess: It’s the same order of magnitude, and error bars are probably larger than 2 million DLES anyway. But I’m curious what caused this change in your estimate.