Research Fellow at GovAI, background in Experimental Psychology. Working on public and expert opinion on AI.
NoemiD
Karma: 34
Relatedly but not an answer to the question: I am currently working on a survey of AI researchers on AI sentience/subjective experience with Jeff Sebo, Lucius Caviola, Joshua Lewis, Kate Mays, and David Chalmers. I also know that the Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program at NYU has relevant ongoing projects.
Preprint is up and can be found here. Table S7 in the appendix may be particularly useful to answer some of the above. There will be two new surveys this year that gather new data on HLMI forecasts and the results will be out a lot faster this time round.
We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it’s worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.