Research Fellow at GovAI, background in Experimental Psychology. Working on public and expert opinion on AI.
NoemiD
Karma: 34
Preprint is up and can be found here. Table S7 in the appendix may be particularly useful to answer some of the above. There will be two new surveys this year that gather new data on HLMI forecasts and the results will be out a lot faster this time round.
We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it’s worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.
The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric notes a host of examples of art that help stimulate conceptions of deep time, the future, future generations, etc. that may be relevant to longtermism.
Various works by Katie Paterson such as Vatnajökull (the sound of)
or Fossil NecklaceA pollution machine created by the Future Energy Lab for the UAE government to viscerally convey what air quality would be like in 2034 without intervention
Various other experiential/immersive/VR ways of conveying, say, the horrors of factory farming or environmental degradation
Clock of the Long Now or 10,000 year clock by the Long Now Foundation
There seem to be quite a few musical pieces being played slowly or on repeat for hundreds of years—e.g. John Cage’s As Slow As Possible
I’ve been playing around with the idea of doing something in this direction—if any collaborators want to work on doing some survey or experimental work exploring this, feel free to reach out!
Relatedly but not an answer to the question: I am currently working on a survey of AI researchers on AI sentience/subjective experience with Jeff Sebo, Lucius Caviola, Joshua Lewis, Kate Mays, and David Chalmers. I also know that the Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program at NYU has relevant ongoing projects.