We have a poor track record for predicting the impact of long term population changes e.g. the Population Bomb (Ehrlich).
The consequences of trying to control reproduction (especially women’s) are historically bad e.g. China’s one child policy.
What is the evidence that fertility rates won’t spontaneously reverse at some point, at least to replacement levels, even without incentives or restrictions on reproductive autonomy?
Why not concentrate on adapting to a lower population instead? E.g. increase productivity, automation, increased healthspan, etc.
I am skeptical of surveys that ask people “how many children they want.” Does this desire change over time depending on the age of the respondent? I think this needs to be qualified—under what certain circumstances would one want to have their ideal number of children? I.e. adequate resources including for child care, a stable partnership or community, no career penalty for women, etc. The answers to the latter question are likely to yield more insight to potential addressable solutions.
Most species go extinct within 1 million years or “speciate” into a different species eventually. Why should humans be different?
100% agree with this!