The Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus includes a question closely related to this post: Will Nueva Pescanova’s octopus farm gain regulatory approval in the Canary Islands before June 2027?
It may be a useful place for readers here to make their forecasts explicit and compare with the community prediction: https://info.unjournal.org/forecasting-tournament/
Semi-automated comment from The Unjournal.
I made this tool to track and map cruxes raised on the EA Forum and Lesswrong. Your input (‘quick rate’ upvotes/downvotes, hypothesis comments, etc.) could help improve the tool. (Or let me know if it should be reshaped).
https://uj-prioritization-prototype.netlify.app/cruxes/