Most of the point estimates seem far too optimistic. Is it really feasible (probability greater than 1 in one billion) that MIRI could really create some kind of provably safe AI framework AND have it implemented before Google, Microsoft, Amazon, the US government, the Russian government, and the Chinese government (or by these entities) instead of using their own?
thisisausername
Karma: 3
Estimate 3, acknowledged to be “pretty made up,” is said to be 1% but I don’t see any reason why it couldn’t take any other particular value like say 1 in 1 million.