titotal

Karma: 9,207

I’m a computational physicist, I generally donate to global health. I am skeptical of AI x-risk and of big R Rationalism, and I intend on explaining why in great detail.

Six experiments with a simple optimizer’s curse model

titotal5 Mar 2026 14:20 UTC

32 points

1 comment13 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

The best cause will disappoint you: An intro to the optimisers curse

titotal11 Feb 2026 15:49 UTC

164 points

19 comments14 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

Author, assistant, and persona: the metaphors I use for LLM chatbots

titotal4 Feb 2026 14:10 UTC

10 points

0 comments13 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

Explaining a subtle but important error in the LEAP survey of AI experts

titotal4 Dec 2025 15:45 UTC

40 points

4 comments10 min readEA link

How AI may become deceitful, sycophantic… and lazy

titotal7 Oct 2025 14:15 UTC

30 points

4 comments22 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models

titotal19 Jun 2025 13:35 UTC

286 points

32 comments40 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

A widely shared AI productivity paper was retracted, is possibly fraudulent

titotal19 May 2025 10:18 UTC

34 points

4 comments3 min readEA link

Debate: should EA avoid using AI art outside of research?

titotal30 Apr 2025 11:10 UTC

34 points

29 comments3 min readEA link

Slopworld 2035: The dangers of mediocre AI

titotal14 Apr 2025 13:14 UTC

90 points

1 comment29 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

AI is not taking over material science (for now): an analysis and conference report

titotal11 Mar 2025 12:01 UTC

59 points

16 comments25 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

Explaining the discrepancies in cost effectiveness ratings: A replication and breakdown of RP’s animal welfare cost effectiveness calculations

titotal14 Oct 2024 11:34 UTC

158 points

28 comments12 min readEA link

Is “superhuman” AI forecasting BS? Some experiments on the “539″ bot from the Centre for AI Safety

titotal18 Sep 2024 13:07 UTC

69 points

4 comments14 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

Most smart and skilled people are outside of the EA/rationalist community: an analysis

titotal12 Jul 2024 12:13 UTC

219 points

26 comments14 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

In defense of standards: A fecal thought experiment

titotal24 Jun 2024 12:18 UTC

11 points

10 comments8 min readEA link

Motivation gaps: Why so much EA criticism is hostile and lazy

titotal22 Apr 2024 11:49 UTC

214 points

44 comments19 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

[Draft] The humble cosmologist’s P(doom) paradox

titotal16 Mar 2024 11:13 UTC

39 points

6 comments10 min readEA link

The Leeroy Jenkins principle: How faulty AI could guarantee “warning shots”

titotal14 Jan 2024 15:03 UTC

56 points

2 comments21 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

titotal’s Quick takes

titotal9 Dec 2023 0:25 UTC

8 points

53 comments EA link

Why Yudkowsky is wrong about “covalently bonded equivalents of biology”

titotal6 Dec 2023 14:09 UTC

29 points

20 comments16 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

“Diamondoid bacteria” nanobots: deadly threat or dead-end? A nanotech investigation

titotal29 Sep 2023 14:01 UTC

102 points

33 comments20 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)