Toby_Ord

Karma: 4,425

Broad Timelines

Toby_Ord19 Mar 2026 19:05 UTC

115 points

16 comments16 min readEA link

Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:45 UTC

80 points

10 comments8 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:45 UTC

22 points

2 comments5 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

The Scaling Series Discussion Thread: with Toby Ord

Toby Tremlett🔹2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

72 points

19 comments1 min readEA link

The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

25 points

0 comments8 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

28 points

1 comment10 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

38 points

2 comments16 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:43 UTC

28 points

2 comments9 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

The Scaling Paradox

Toby_Ord30 Jan 2026 13:34 UTC

49 points

1 comment8 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

How Well Does RL Scale?

Toby_Ord22 Oct 2025 13:16 UTC

171 points

53 comments7 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Evaluating the Infinite

Toby_Ord25 Sep 2025 11:15 UTC

108 points

13 comments2 min readEA link

The Precipice Revisited

Toby_Ord12 Jul 2024 14:06 UTC

283 points

41 comments17 min readEA link

On the Value of Advancing Progress

Toby_Ord11 Jul 2024 11:20 UTC

127 points

39 comments9 min readEA link

Robust longterm comparisons

Toby_Ord15 May 2024 15:07 UTC

45 points

3 comments7 min readEA link

Shaping Humanity’s Longterm Trajectory

Toby_Ord18 Jul 2023 10:09 UTC

176 points

57 comments2 min readEA link

(files.tobyord.com)

Casting the Decisive Vote

Toby_Ord27 Mar 2023 14:09 UTC

103 points

14 comments9 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Reflecting on the Last Year — Lessons for EA (opening keynote at EAG)

Toby_Ord24 Mar 2023 15:35 UTC

274 points

16 comments16 min readEA link

The Precipice: Introduction and Chapter One

Toby_Ord2 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC

23 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

AMA: Toby Ord, author of “The Precipice” and co-founder of the EA movement

Toby_Ord17 Mar 2020 2:39 UTC

68 points

82 comments1 min readEA link

The value of money going to different groups

Toby_Ord16 May 2017 13:11 UTC

22 points

14 comments1 min readEA link