Toby_Ord

Karma: 4,023

Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:45 UTC

13 points

0 comments8 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:45 UTC

5 points

0 comments5 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

5 points

0 comments8 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

5 points

0 comments10 min readEA link

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Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:44 UTC

5 points

0 comments16 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart

Toby_Ord2 Feb 2026 8:43 UTC

5 points

0 comments9 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

The Scaling Paradox

Toby_Ord30 Jan 2026 13:34 UTC

7 points

0 comments8 min readEA link

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How Well Does RL Scale?

Toby_Ord22 Oct 2025 13:16 UTC

163 points

52 comments7 min readEA link

Evaluating the Infinite

Toby_Ord25 Sep 2025 11:15 UTC

108 points

13 comments2 min readEA link

The Precipice Revisited

Toby_Ord12 Jul 2024 14:06 UTC

283 points

41 comments17 min readEA link

On the Value of Advancing Progress

Toby_Ord11 Jul 2024 11:20 UTC

127 points

39 comments9 min readEA link

Robust longterm comparisons

Toby_Ord15 May 2024 15:07 UTC

45 points

3 comments7 min readEA link

Shaping Humanity’s Longterm Trajectory

Toby_Ord18 Jul 2023 10:09 UTC

176 points

57 comments2 min readEA link

(files.tobyord.com)

Casting the Decisive Vote

Toby_Ord27 Mar 2023 14:09 UTC

103 points

14 comments9 min readEA link

(www.tobyord.com)

Reflecting on the Last Year — Lessons for EA (opening keynote at EAG)

Toby_Ord24 Mar 2023 15:35 UTC

273 points

15 comments16 min readEA link

The Precipice: Introduction and Chapter One

Toby_Ord2 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC

23 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

AMA: Toby Ord, author of “The Precipice” and co-founder of the EA movement

Toby_Ord17 Mar 2020 2:39 UTC

68 points

82 comments1 min readEA link

The value of money going to different groups

Toby_Ord16 May 2017 13:11 UTC

22 points

14 comments1 min readEA link

The Moral Imperative Towards Cost-effectiveness

Toby_Ord9 Sep 2014 16:14 UTC

27 points

6 comments10 min readEA link

The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk

Toby_Ord4 Jul 2014 4:08 UTC

70 points

11 comments7 min readEA link