FYI, the CMIP6 models, to be used for the IPCC’s AR6 reporting in 2021 are already producing prelim results.
Quote from the linked article: “Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C (pdf) and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C. The IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5) assessed ECS to be “likely” in the range 1.5C to 4.5C and “very unlikely” greater than 6C. (These terms are defined using the IPCC methodology.)”
The IPCC experts actually toned down the projected temperature range from the Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project number 5 models. If they did so in a similar fashion in 2021, we’d get an IPCC AR6 ECS range of roughly 2.3 to 5.2 degrees Celsius, with a tail up to 7 degrees.
Following on from the Does climate change deserve more attention within EA post from earlier in the year, I have compiled a ‘watch-list’ of climate interventions and focus areas that I would really like to:
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Get feedback on areas I may have missed
Get resources for tracking some of the gaps
Please check it out!