Can someone clarify these statements from Summary (3a)? They seem to be at odds....
A: “A common misconception is that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 30%.”
B: “Instead: Goldstein et al showed that superforecasters outperformed the intelligence community...”[then a table listing the ICPM MMDB as 0.23 versus the GJP Best MMDB as 0.15].
--> Wouldn’t that be 34% better?
Sorry, I’m confused. Do you mean the misconception is that rather than “30%” we should be saying that GJP was “34.7%” better than the ICPM?