This doesn’t actually provide anything like a framework to evaluate Cause X candidates. Indeed, I would argue it doesn’t even provide a decent guide to finding plausible Cause X candidates.
Only the first methodology (expanding the moral sphere) identifies a type of moral claim that we have historically looked back on and found to be compelling. The second and third methods just list typical ways people in the EA community claim to have found Cause X. Moreover, there is good reason for thinking that successfully finding something that qualifies as Cause X will require coming up with something that isn’t an obvious candidate.
I think this post is confused on a number of levels.
First, as far as ideal behavior is concerned integrity isn’t a relevant concept. The ideal utilitarian agent will simply always behave in the manner that optimizes expected future utility factoring in the effect that breaking one’s word or other actions will have on the perceptions (and thus future actions) of other people.
Now the post rightly notes that as a limited human agent we aren’t truly able to engage in this kind of analysis. Both because of our computational limitations and our inability to perfectly deceive it is beneficial to adopt heuristics about not lying, stabbing people in the back etc.. (which we may judge to be worth abandoning in exceptional situations).
However, the post gives us no reason to believe it’s particular interpretation of integrity “being straightforward” is the best such heuristic. It merely asserts the author’s belief that this somehow works out to be the best.
This brings us to the second major point, even though the post acknowledges the very reason for considering integrity is that, “I find the ideal of integrity very viscerally compelling, significantly moreso than other abstract beliefs or principles that I often act on.” the post proceeds to act as if it was considering what kind of integrity like notion would be appropriate to design into (or socially construct) in some alternative society of purely rational agents.
Obviously, the way we should act depends hugely on the way in which others will interpret our actions and respond to them. In the actual world WE WILL BE TRUSTED TO THE EXTENT WE RESPECT THE STANDARD SOCIETAL NOTIONS OF INTEGRITY AND TRUST. It doesn’t matter if some other alternate notion of integrity might have been better to have if we don’t show integrity in the traditional manner we will be punished.
In particular, “being straightforward” will often needlessly imperil people’s estimation of our integrity. For example, consider the usual kinds of assurances we give to friends and family that we “will be there for them no matter what” and that “we wouldn’t ever abandon them.” In truth pretty much everyone, if presented with sufficient data showing their friend or family member to be a horrific serial killer with every intention of continuing to torture and kill people, would turn them in even in the face of protestations of innocence. Does that mean that instead of saying “I’ll be there for you whatever happens” we should say “I’ll be there for you as long as the balance of probability doesn’t suggest that supporting you will cost more than 5 QALYs” (quality adjusted life years)?
No, because being straightforward in that sense causes most people to judge us as weird and abnormal and thereby trust us less. Even though everyone understands at some level that these kind of assurances are only true ceterus parabus actually being straightforward about that fact is unusual enough that it causes other people to suspect that they don’t understand our emotions/motivations and thus give us less trust.
In short: yes, the obvious point that we should adopt some kind of heuristic of keeping our word and otherwise modeling integrity is true. However, the suggestion that this nice simple heuristic is somehow the best one is completely unjustified.