Asking out of ignorance here, as I was only exposed to the general news version and not EA perspectives about FTX. What difference would it have made if FTX fraud was uncovered before things crashed? Is it really that straightforward to conclude that most of the harm done would have been preventable?
VictorW
Neurodivergent EA community survey results [2023]
My independent impressions on the EA Handbook
[Question] How do inspired contributions and externalized costs factor in cost-effectiveness calculations?
Thanks for entertaining my thought experiment, and I’m glad because I better understand your perspective too now, and I think I’m in full agreement with your response.
A shift of topic content here, feel free to not engage if this doesn’t interest you.
To share some vague thoughts about how things could be different. I think that posts which are structurally equivalent to a hit piece can be considered against the forum rules, either implicitly already or explicitly. Moderators could intervene before most of the damage is done. I think that policing this isn’t as subjective as one might fear, and that certain criteria can be checked even without any assumptions about truthfulness or intentions. Maybe an LLM could work for flagging high-risk posts for moderators to review.Another angle would be to try and shape discussion norms or attitudes. There might not be a reliable way to influence this space, but one could try for example by providing the right material that would better equip readers to have better online discussions in general as well as recognize unhelpful/manipulative writing. It could become a popular staple much like I think “Replacing Guilt” is very well regarded. Funnily enough, I have been collating a list of green/orange/red flags in online discussions for other educational reasons.
“Attitudes” might be way too subjective/varied to shape, whereas I believe “good discussion norms” can be presented in a concrete way that isn’t inflexibly limiting. NVC comes to mind as a concrete framework, and I am of the opinion that the original “sharing information” post can be considered violent communication.
a piece of writing with most of the stereotypical properties of a hit piece, regardless of the intention behind it
One of those sources (“Compassion, by the Pound”) estimates that reducing consumption by one egg results in an eventual fall in production by 0.91 eggs, i.e., less than a 1:1 effect.
I’m not arguing against the idea that reducing consumption leads to a long-term reduction in production. I’m doubtful that we can meaningfully generalise this kind of reasoning across different specifics as well as distinct contexts without investigating it practically.
For example, there probably exist many types of food products where reducing your consumption only has like a 0.1:1 effect. (It’s also reasonable to consider that there are some cases where reducing consumption could even correspond with increased production.) There are many assumptions in place that might not hold true. Although I’m not interested in an actual discussion about veganism, one example of a strong assumption that might not be true is that the consumption of egg is replaced by other food sources that are less bad to rely on.
I’m thinking that the overall “small chance of large impact by one person” argument probably doesn’t map well to scenarios where voting is involved, one-off or irregular events, sales of digital products, markets where the supply chain changes over time because there’s many ways to use those products, or where excess production can still be useful. When I say “doesn’t map well”, I mean that the effect of one person taking action could be anywhere between 0:1 to 1:1 compared to what happens when the sufficient number of people simultaneously make the change in decision-making required for a significant shift. If we talk about one million people needing to vote differently so that a decision is reversed, the expected impact of my one vote is always going to be less than 100% of one millionth, because it’s not guaranteed that one million people will sway their vote. If there’s only a 10% chance of the one million swayed votes, I’d think my expected impact to come out at far less than even 0.01:1 from a statistical model.
Potential online group for neurodivergent EAs
I’ve seen EA writing (particularly about AI safety) that goes something like:
I know X and Y thought leaders in AI safety, they’re exceptionally smart people with opinion A, so even though I personally think opinion B is more defensible, I also think I should be updating my natural independent opinion in the direction of A, because they’re way smarter and more knowledgeable than me.I’m struggling to see how this update strategy makes sense. It seems to have merit when X and Y know/understand things that literally no other expert knows, but aside from that, in all other scenarios that come to mind, it seems neutral at best, otherwise a worse strategy than totally disregarding the “thought leader status” of X and Y.
Am I missing something?
I appreciate your perspective, and FWIW I have no immediate concerns about the accuracy of your investigation or the wording of your post.
Correct me if I’m wrong: you would like any proposed change in rules or norms to still support what you tried to achieve in that post, which is provide accurate information, presented fairly, and hopefully leading people to update in a way that leads to better decision making.
I support this, I agree that it’s important to have some kind of channel to address the kinds of concerns you raised, and I probably would have seen your post as a positive contribution (had I read it and been a part of EA / etc back then but I’m not aware of the full context), and simultaneously I’m saying things like your post could have even better outcomes with a little bit of additional effort/adjustment in the writing.
I encourage you think about my proposed alternatives not as being blockers to this kind of positive contribution. That is not their intended purpose. As an example, if a DTHP rule allows DTHPs but requires a compulsory disclosure at the top addressing the relevant needs, feelings, requests of the writer, I don’t think this particularly bars contributions from happening, and I think it would also serve to 1) save time for the writer by reflecting on their underlying purpose for writing, and 2) dampen certain harmful biases that a reader is likely to experience from a traditional hit piece.
If such a rule existed back then, presumably you would have taken it into account during writing. If you visualize what you would have done in that situation, do you think the rule would have negatively impacted 1) what you set out to express in your post and 2) the downstream effects of your post?
What I think I’m hearing from you (and please correct me if I’m not hearing you) is that you feel conflicted by the thought that the efforts of good people with good intentions can be so easily be undone, and that you wish there were some concrete ways to prevent this happening to organizations, both individually and systemically. I hear you on thinking about how things could work better as a system/process/community in this context. (My response won’t go into this systems level, not because it’s not important, but because I don’t have anything useful to offer you right now.)
I acknowledge your two examples (“Alice and Chloe almost ruined an organization) and (keeping bad workers anonymous has negative consequences). I’m not trying to dispute these or convince you that you’re wrong. What I am trying to highlight is that there is a way to think about these that doesn’t involve requiring us to never make small mistakes with big consequences. I’m talking about a mindset, which isn’t a matter of right or wrong, but simply a mental model that one can choose to apply.
I’m asking you to stash away your being right and whatever you perspective you think I hold for a moment and do a thought experiment for 60 seconds.
At t=0, it looks like ex-employee A, with some influential help, managed to inspire significant online backlash against organization X led by well-intentioned employer Z.
It could easily look like Z’s project is done, their reputation is forever tarnished, their options have been severely constrained. Z might well feel that way themselves.
Z is a person with good intentions, conviction, strong ambitions, interpersonal skills, and a good work ethic.
Suppose that organization X got dismantled at t=1 year. Imagine Z’s “default trajectory” extending into t=2 years. What is Z up to now? Do you think they still feel exactly the way they did at t=0?
At t=10, is Z successful? Did the events of t=0 really ruin their potential at the time?
At t=40, what might Z say recalling the events of t=0 and how much that impacted their overall life? Did t=0 define their whole life? Did it definitely lead to a worse career path, or did adaptation lead to something unexpectedly better? Could they definitely say that their overall life and value satisfaction would have been better if t=0 never played out that way?
In the grand scheme of things, how much did t=0 feeling like “Z’s life is almost ruined” translate into reality?
If you entertained this thought experiment, thank you for being open to doing so.
To express my opinion plainly, good and bad events are inevitable, it is inevitable that Z will make mistakes with negative consequences as part of their ambitious journey of life. Is it in Z’s best interests to avoid making obvious mistakes? Yes. Is it in their best interests to adopt a robust strategy such that they would never have fallen victim to t=0 events or similarly “bad” events at any other point? I don’t think so necessarily, because: we don’t know without long-term hindsight whether “traumatic” events t=0 lead to net positive changes or not; even if Z somehow became mistake-proof-without-being-perfect, that doesn’t mean something as significant as t=0 couldn’t still happen to them without them making a mistake; and lastly because being that robust is practically impossible for most people.
All this to say, without knowing whether “things like t=0” are “unequivocally bad to ever let happen”, I think it’s more empowering to be curious about what we can learn from t=0 than to arrive at the conclusion at t<1 that preventing it is both necessary and good.
During EAGxVirtual, I hesitantly reached out to almost everyone tagged with a particular affiliation group to ask for their brief input, and was very positively surprised by 1) the ratio of responses to non-responses, and 2) that the responses were more positive and enthusiastic than I might have expected.
I’m very excited by the work HLI is doing.
I’m a little confused by what psychotherapy refers to in this post, is this going by HLI’s contextual definition “any form of face-to-face psychotherapy delivered to groups or by non-specialists deployed in LMICs”?
I guess not strictly related then, but I’d be interested to know if anyone is aware of cost-effectiveness analyses using WELLBYs for one-on-one traditional psychotherapy/counselling, as this is a relevant baseline for a project I’m drafting.
There are a couple of strong “shoulds” in the EA Handbook (I went through it over the last two months as part of an EA Virtual program) and they stood out to me as the most disagreeable part of EA philosophy that was presented.
One of the canonical EA books (can’t remember which) suggests that if an individual stops consuming eggs (for example), almost all the time this will have zero impact, but there’s some small probability that on some occasion it will have a significant impact. And that can make it worthwhile.
I found this reasonable at the time, but I’m now inclined to think that it’s a poor generalization where the expected impact still remains negligible in most scenarios. The main influence for my shift is when I think about how decisions are made within organizations, and how power-seeking approaches are vastly superior to voting in most areas of life where the system exceeds a threshold of complexity.
Anyone care to propose updates on this topic?
Does anyone have a resource that maps out different types/subtypes of AI interpretability work?
E.g. mechanistic interpretability and concept-based interpretability, what other types are there and how are they categorised?
Thanks for the clarification about how 1 and 2 may look very different in the EA communities.
I’m not particularly concerned about the thought that people might be out there taking maximization too far, the framing of my observations is more like “well here’s what going through the EA Handbook may prompt me to think about EA ideas or what other EAs may believe.
After thinking about your reply, I realized that I made a bunch of assumptions based on things that might just be incidental and not strongly connected. I came to the wrong impression that the EA Handbook is meant to be the most canonical and endorsed collection of EA fundamentals.
Here’s how I ended up there. In my encounters hearing about EA resources, the Handbook is the only introductory “course”, and presumably due to being the only one of its kind, it’s also the only one that’s been promoted to me via over multiple mediums. So I assumed that it must be the most official source of introduction, remaining alone in that spot over multiple years, seeing it bundled with EA VP also seemed like an endorsement. I also made the subconscious assumption that since there’s plenty of alternative high quality EA writing out there, as well as resources put into writing, that the Handbook as a compilation is probably designed to be the most representative collection of EA meta, otherwise it wouldn’t still be promoted the way it has been to me.
I’ve had almost no interaction with the EA Forum before reading the Handbook, so very limited prior context to gauge how “meta” the Handbook is among EA communities, or how meta any of its individual articles are. (Which now someone has helpfully provided a bunch of reading material that is also fundamental but while having quite different perspectives.)
An example of invested but not attached: I’m investing time/money/energy into taking classes about subject X. I chose subject X because it could help me generate more value Y that I care about. But I’m not attached to getting good at X, I’m invested in the process of learning it.
I feel more confused after reading your other points. What is your definition of rationality? Is this definition also what EA/LW people usually mean? (If so, who introduces this definition?)When you say rationally is “what gets you good performance”, that seems like it could lead to arbitrary circular reasoning about what is and isn’t rational. If I exaggerate this concern and define rationality as “what gets you the best life possible”, that’s not a helpful definition because it leads to the unfalsifiable claim that rationality is optimal while providing no practical insight.
Two things:
1. I think of “Invested but not attached [to the outcome]” as a pareto-optimal strategy that is neither attached nor detached.2. I disagree with the second to last paragraph, “Mud-dredging does improve your rationality, however. That’s why betting works.” I think that if you’re escaping in the mountains, then it’s true that coming down from the mountain will give you actual data and some degree of accountability. But it’s not obvious to me that 1) mud-dredging increases rationality, 2) the kind of rationality that mud-dredging maybe increases is actually more beneficial than harmful in the long run in terms of performance. Furthermore, among all the frameworks out there in terms of mental health or productivity, I believe that creativity is almost universally valued as a thing to foster more than rationality, in terms of performance/success, so I’m curious about where you’re coming from.
To add on to this vibe of “getting dogpiled is an unusually stressful experience that is probably hard to imagine accurately”, I feel a bit strange to be reading so many “reasoned” comments about how specific improvements in replies/wordings could have been decisively accurate/evident, as though anything less seems like a negative sign.
I relate to that logically as an observer, but at the same time I don’t particularly think the whole sea of suggestions are meaningfully actionable. I think a lot of time and thought went into these posts, virtually any variant would still be vulnerable to critique because we have limited time/energy, let alone the fact that we’re human beings and it’s more than okay to produce incomplete/flawed work. Like what expectations are we judging others by in this complex situation, and would we really be able to uphold our own expectations, let alone the combined expectations of hundreds of people in the community? It’s insanely hard to communicate all the right information in one go, and that’s why we have conversations. Though this broader discussion of “what’s the real story” isn’t one that I consider myself entitled to, nor do I think we should all be entitled to it just because we’re EAs.