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Yarrow Bouchard 🔸

Karma: 1,369

Pronouns: she/​her or they/​them.

I got interested in effective altruism back before it was called effective altruism, back before Giving What We Can had a website. Later on, I got involved in my university EA group and helped run it for a few years. Now I’m trying to figure out where effective altruism can fit into my life these days and what it means to me.

How I hope the EA com­mu­nity will re­spond to the AI bub­ble popping

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸5 Dec 2025 9:26 UTC
33 points
62 comments7 min readEA link

Roboti­cist Rod­ney Brooks on gen­er­a­tive AI hype

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸4 Dec 2025 5:45 UTC
16 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(rodneybrooks.com)

High­lights from Ilya Sutskever’s Novem­ber 2025 in­ter­view with Dwarkesh Patel

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸25 Nov 2025 22:52 UTC
21 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Un­solved re­search prob­lems on the road to AGI

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸22 Nov 2025 22:39 UTC
11 points
12 comments7 min readEA link

Is the AI In­dus­try in a Bub­ble?

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸16 Nov 2025 1:00 UTC
35 points
8 comments15 min readEA link

A ma­jor flaw in the Fore­cast­ing Re­search In­sti­tute’s “Lon­gi­tu­di­nal Ex­pert AI Panel” survey

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸14 Nov 2025 8:54 UTC
27 points
21 comments6 min readEA link

Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella says he doesn’t be­lieve in AGI

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸12 Nov 2025 23:03 UTC
12 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

[Question] Is “AI as Nor­mal Tech­nol­ogy” a mis­nomer?

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸12 Nov 2025 21:46 UTC
17 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Frozen skills aren’t gen­eral intelligence

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸8 Nov 2025 23:27 UTC
10 points
29 comments11 min readEA link

Pru­den­tial longter­mism is de­fanged by the strat­egy of pro­cras­ti­na­tion — and that’s not all

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸6 Nov 2025 17:42 UTC
13 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Dis­ci­plined iconoclasm

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸3 Nov 2025 22:30 UTC
25 points
22 comments7 min readEA link

Even af­ter GPT-4, AI re­searchers fore­casted a 50% chance of AGI by 2047 or 2116, de­pend­ing how you define AGI

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸28 Oct 2025 16:55 UTC
18 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] If an AI fi­nan­cial bub­ble popped, how much would that change your mind about near-term AGI?

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸21 Oct 2025 22:39 UTC
19 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Ir­recov­er­able collapse

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸21 Oct 2025 11:05 UTC
12 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

AGI by 2032 is ex­tremely unlikely

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸16 Oct 2025 22:50 UTC
24 points
44 comments7 min readEA link

OpenAI’s o3 model scores 3% on the ARC-AGI-2 bench­mark, com­pared to 60% for the av­er­age human

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸1 May 2025 13:57 UTC
14 points
8 comments3 min readEA link
(arcprize.org)

François Chol­let on why LLMs won’t scale to AGI

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸15 Apr 2025 23:01 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

ARC-AGI-2 Overview With François Chollet

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸10 Apr 2025 18:54 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

On Jan­uary 1, 2030, there will be no AGI (and AGI will still not be im­mi­nent)

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸6 Apr 2025 1:08 UTC
46 points
54 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] What novel, ac­tion­able ad­vice does longter­mism offer?

Yarrow Bouchard 🔸19 Apr 2024 5:34 UTC
14 points
14 comments1 min readEA link