Thanks for sharing this summary! I think these questions and forecasts are a useful resource.
For anyone who wants to see more forecasts of existential risks (or similarly extreme outcomes), I made a database of all the ones I’m aware of. (People can also suggest additions to that. And it includes a link to these Metaculus forecasts.) And here’s a short talk in which I introduce the database and overview the importance and challenges of estimating existential risk.
You may very well already be aware of this (I didn’t look at your linked post closely), but Elicit IDE has a “Search Metaforecast database” tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for “existential risk.”
Thanks for sharing this summary! I think these questions and forecasts are a useful resource.
For anyone who wants to see more forecasts of existential risks (or similarly extreme outcomes), I made a database of all the ones I’m aware of. (People can also suggest additions to that. And it includes a link to these Metaculus forecasts.) And here’s a short talk in which I introduce the database and overview the importance and challenges of estimating existential risk.
You may very well already be aware of this (I didn’t look at your linked post closely), but Elicit IDE has a “Search Metaforecast database” tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for “existential risk.”