Hey Matt, it’s awesome that you two are interested in participating! Here are the promos I’d recommend doing in NJ grouped by EV/hour for those taking the standard deduction:
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post), Wynnbet (both bets on long odds), PlaySugarshouse (bet on short odds), Playup (bet on short odds), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds).
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post and very high-variance for non-itemizers), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds), BetFred (short odds on first bet, long odds on free bet).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds), Bally Bet (both bets on long odds), Play Maverick (bet on long odds), Elite Sportsbook (garbage software that will test your patience, bet on long odds)
$50-150/hour and low variance
Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Wynnbet, BetRivers (you can bet both sides of the same game).
Unfortunately a few of the best CO offers got pulled or downgraded since this post was written eight days ago (Maximbet: Down from a $2,000 deposit match with a 1x rollover to a $2,000 deposit match with a 3x rollover. WynnBet: Down from a $1,000 risk-free first bet to a “bet $10, earn $200 site credit win or lose.” Playup: Down from a $750 stake-returning deposit match $200 deposit match.)
This trend will probably continue as people like us take advantage of these offers, then never bet another dime. DraftKings used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Caesars used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Sports Illustrated used to offer a $7,500 risk free first bet. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of opportunity in CO!
A Fanduel agent just told me “This currently is for users in Louisiana and New York. That promotion ended a couple weeks back” after I lost a $1000 bet and didn’t see the free bet. I got $100 in credit instead. So I guess Fanduel should get pulled?
That said something is going on, because all these pages have been taken down. That said, I don’t see how they can change this after the fact, given you betted when it was going on and well documented.
When I bet with SI it was similar to DraftKings, but now they’ve changed the promo to be a bit worse for those taking the standard deduction. You have to place 30 $10 bets to unlock 30 $10 free bets that do not return they’re stake
Strategy should be short odds for the cash bets, long odds for the free bets. Still worth doing, just a bit cumbersome. Thanks for spotting that!
Strange, I was able to withdraw to a debit card or through PlayPlus (which I can then transfer to a bank account). Your withdrawal options may vary depending on what method you use to deposit.
Napkin math says no if you’re taking standard deduction but yes if you’re itemizing. Promo EV is about $1600, and you have to place $6,000 worth of bets to unlock it, so if your bets outperform a ~27% loss rate, this is profitable.
Be sure that the cash bets you place are no shorter than −200 odds because −200 is the minimum odds to qualify towards to rollover requirement. Also, the bet you place with the site credit should be on long odds because the free bet does not return its stake.
Caesar’s lets you do your free bet first, which messed me up and I ended up doing it on extremely short odds (based on the order above). Just sharing so no one else misses out by doing this!
Thank you for a great tip, this was not the case when I bet with Caesar’s just three weeks ago. It appears that the terms of these offers can change very frequently, I’ll edit this post when I get home to recommend that a participant carefully read the current terms and conditions before depositing/betting.
Great point: If you’re allowed a free bet first that can be used separately from a cash bet (as is the case with Caesars’ new offer,) there is no reason to bet on long odds with your cash bet.
It looks like Superbook and PlayMaverick should be short odds?
Superbook:
The following terms apply:
100% Deposit Bonus Match
Up to $1,000 of initial deposit
Bonus Voucher will be credited into account within 24 hours
Bonus Vouchers are applied to 50% of your cash wager
Bonus voucher will be applied to subsequent qualifying wagers at 50% of the wager amount, up to the value remaining on the Bonus Voucher. (e.g. a $100 wager will be $50 cash and $50 of Bonus Voucher funds, if available).
PlayMaverick:
The Maverick Sports Welcome Deposit Bonus Match offers first time depositing customers a 100% match of up to $300 in Bonus Voucher (the Promotion), where participants who complete an initial deposit into their Maverick Sports Account will receive a bonus voucher for use only on the Maverick Sports product (Bonus Voucher) equal to the amount of that initial deposit, up to Three Hundred Dollars ($300). Bonus voucher will be applied to subsequent qualifying wagers at 50% of the wager amount, up to the value remaining on the Bonus Voucher. (e.g., a $100 wager will be $50 cash and $50 of Bonus Voucher funds, if available). A winning wager will be credited to the wagering account cash balance in the amount of all winnings plus the return of the cash portion of the wager. Bonus Voucher funds wagers are not returned as part of winnings. (e.g., a $100 wager at +110 will be $50 cash/ $50 Bonus Voucher will win $110 plus $50 cash wager return, for a net increase to the wagering account cashable balance of $160)
I believe both PlayMaverick and Super Book give credit that doesn’t return the stake, and credit that can only be used to subsidize cash wagers. This means the entire bet should be used on long odds, since the bettor has strong incentive to place site credit on long odds (higher EV) and only mild incentive to place cash wagers on short odds (lower variance).
Good catch, the first bet should be long odds. Tipico’s site credit returned the stake for me, so the second bet really should be made using short odds. I’ll confirm that this is still the case with customer support tomorrow. The stake-return feature was why I categorized Tipico as a $400+ EV/hour book.
Hey Matt, it’s awesome that you two are interested in participating! Here are the promos I’d recommend doing in NJ grouped by EV/hour for those taking the standard deduction:
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post), Wynnbet (both bets on long odds), PlaySugarshouse (bet on short odds), Playup (bet on short odds), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds),
$50-150/hour and low variance
Bet365, Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Golden Nugget (first bet short odds, free bet long odds)
Not worth doing:
Betway, Borgata, Hard Rock, TheScore, Unibet, Resorts Sportsbook
Incredible. Thanks so much, I’ll reply here to let you know how we made out!
Would love your list for Colorado, taking the standard deduction.
Sure thing, it’ll look similar to the NJ list.
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post and very high-variance for non-itemizers), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds), BetFred (short odds on first bet, long odds on free bet).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds), Bally Bet (both bets on long odds), Play Maverick (bet on long odds), Elite Sportsbook (garbage software that will test your patience, bet on long odds)
$50-150/hour and low variance
Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Wynnbet, BetRivers (you can bet both sides of the same game).
Not worth doing:
Betway (offer recently pulled), BetWildwood, BetMonarch, Circa, SBK, TheScore, Sky Ute, Sportsbetting.com, Playup (due to promotion downgrade), Maximbet (due to rollover increase),
Unfortunately a few of the best CO offers got pulled or downgraded since this post was written eight days ago (Maximbet: Down from a $2,000 deposit match with a 1x rollover to a $2,000 deposit match with a 3x rollover. WynnBet: Down from a $1,000 risk-free first bet to a “bet $10, earn $200 site credit win or lose.” Playup: Down from a $750 stake-returning deposit match $200 deposit match.)
This trend will probably continue as people like us take advantage of these offers, then never bet another dime. DraftKings used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Caesars used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Sports Illustrated used to offer a $7,500 risk free first bet. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of opportunity in CO!
A Fanduel agent just told me “This currently is for users in Louisiana and New York. That promotion ended a couple weeks back” after I lost a $1000 bet and didn’t see the free bet. I got $100 in credit instead. So I guess Fanduel should get pulled?
What the agent said is false. Here’s the relevant webpages from earlier today, and a screenshot:
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:MPVj5jFQq6IJ:https://promos.sportsbook.fanduel.com/promotion%3FpromoCode%3DRF1000AS%26hideFooter%3Dtrue%26hideHeader%3Dtrue+&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:1QyLKt7hvdcJ:https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/What-is-the-1000-Risk-Free-Bet+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HHeBLwMgPXkJ:https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/Do-I-Need-a-Promocode-for-the-Risk-Free-Bet-Promotion+&cd=16&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:CGpGKkaSNWYJ:https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/I-m-New-to-Sportsbook-Are-There-Any-First-Time-Deposit-Offers-Risk-Free+&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
https://imgur.com/a/rgIfP81
That said something is going on, because all these pages have been taken down. That said, I don’t see how they can change this after the fact, given you betted when it was going on and well documented.
Thanks. I sent them this and chatted more but they stuck with their story and I don’t think I’ll be getting any other reimbursement.
Personally I I’d dispute the charge with my bank in that instance
Won the Paypal dispute :)
FanDuel ended up crediting my account after doing the same thing, and then reaching out to them on Twitter.
SI seems appx. equivalent to Draft Kings, but maybe I’m missing something?
https://www.sisportsbook.com/spt/bet10get300/
When I bet with SI it was similar to DraftKings, but now they’ve changed the promo to be a bit worse for those taking the standard deduction. You have to place 30 $10 bets to unlock 30 $10 free bets that do not return they’re stake
Strategy should be short odds for the cash bets, long odds for the free bets. Still worth doing, just a bit cumbersome. Thanks for spotting that!
PlayMaverick’s only withdrawal option seems to be:
WITHDRAW AT CAGE Get an authorization code and enable you cash withdrawal at the Maverick sports book counter.
So I passed on that one.
Strange, I was able to withdraw to a debit card or through PlayPlus (which I can then transfer to a bank account). Your withdrawal options may vary depending on what method you use to deposit.
Does Maxim Bet at $2k and 3x seem worthwhile? https://maximbet.com/promotions/big-game-supersized-bonus
Napkin math says no if you’re taking standard deduction but yes if you’re itemizing. Promo EV is about $1600, and you have to place $6,000 worth of bets to unlock it, so if your bets outperform a ~27% loss rate, this is profitable.
Be sure that the cash bets you place are no shorter than −200 odds because −200 is the minimum odds to qualify towards to rollover requirement. Also, the bet you place with the site credit should be on long odds because the free bet does not return its stake.
Some of these links are for New Jersey promo pages.
Caesar’s lets you do your free bet first, which messed me up and I ended up doing it on extremely short odds (based on the order above). Just sharing so no one else misses out by doing this!
Thank you for a great tip, this was not the case when I bet with Caesar’s just three weeks ago. It appears that the terms of these offers can change very frequently, I’ll edit this post when I get home to recommend that a participant carefully read the current terms and conditions before depositing/betting.
Here’s what customer service sent me: https://imgur.com/a/W8eIjm5
In instances where you have a free first bet, why is the second bet best to be on long rather than short odds?
Great point: If you’re allowed a free bet first that can be used separately from a cash bet (as is the case with Caesars’ new offer,) there is no reason to bet on long odds with your cash bet.
It looks like Superbook and PlayMaverick should be short odds?
Superbook:
PlayMaverick:
I believe both PlayMaverick and Super Book give credit that doesn’t return the stake, and credit that can only be used to subsidize cash wagers. This means the entire bet should be used on long odds, since the bettor has strong incentive to place site credit on long odds (higher EV) and only mild incentive to place cash wagers on short odds (lower variance).
Tipico looks like it should be long odds, right?
Good catch, the first bet should be long odds. Tipico’s site credit returned the stake for me, so the second bet really should be made using short odds. I’ll confirm that this is still the case with customer support tomorrow. The stake-return feature was why I categorized Tipico as a $400+ EV/hour book.
Thanks!
Thanks!