This was a really interesting read. I think a lot of this is plausible and it is similar to my own expectations in many ways. Thank you for writing this.
That said, I think your vision is too conservative. AI the field that will change the world massively this century where transformative changes are already certain. But there are other candidates as well. Space development, self replicating macro and nano machines, human enhancement and new physics are options I consider likely in descending order. The interactions between those fields are the truly scary thing. You acknowledge that your predictions are very likely to be false, but I think the biggest error people make when trying to predict the future is that they look at only a single dimension and ignore the interactions. For example, a power seeking AI could reasonably prioritise gambling on an interstellar land grab in the forties.
Another point where I disagree with you is that AI’s will cause more damage with spreadsheets, medical procedures and legal procedures. The human standard is already pretty dismal here, but we are wired to trust people in those positions. I think that while it is certain that AI will fail in some cases, it is far from certain that it will perform worse than the human baseline.
This was a really interesting read. I think a lot of this is plausible and it is similar to my own expectations in many ways. Thank you for writing this.
That said, I think your vision is too conservative. AI the field that will change the world massively this century where transformative changes are already certain. But there are other candidates as well. Space development, self replicating macro and nano machines, human enhancement and new physics are options I consider likely in descending order. The interactions between those fields are the truly scary thing. You acknowledge that your predictions are very likely to be false, but I think the biggest error people make when trying to predict the future is that they look at only a single dimension and ignore the interactions. For example, a power seeking AI could reasonably prioritise gambling on an interstellar land grab in the forties.
Another point where I disagree with you is that AI’s will cause more damage with spreadsheets, medical procedures and legal procedures. The human standard is already pretty dismal here, but we are wired to trust people in those positions. I think that while it is certain that AI will fail in some cases, it is far from certain that it will perform worse than the human baseline.
Yeah. I kept the post mostly to AI but I also think that other technological breakthroughs are a possibility. Didn’t want to make it even longer ;)
I think you could write more of these stories for other kinds of disruptions and I’d be interested in reading them.