But I’m at < 5% (probably < 1%, but I’d want to think about it) on “the world will be transformed” (in the TAI sense) within the next 3 years.
Pedantic, but are you using the bio anchors definition? (“software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it)”)
I thought yes, but I’m a bit unhappy about that assumption (I forgot it was there). If you go by the intended spirit of the assumption (see the footnote) I’m probably on board, but it seems ripe for misinterpretation (“well if you had just deployed GPT-5 it really could have run an automated company, even though in practice we didn’t do that because we were worried about safety and/or legal liability and/or we didn’t know how to prompt it etc”).
Pedantic, but are you using the bio anchors definition? (“software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it)”)
I thought yes, but I’m a bit unhappy about that assumption (I forgot it was there). If you go by the intended spirit of the assumption (see the footnote) I’m probably on board, but it seems ripe for misinterpretation (“well if you had just deployed GPT-5 it really could have run an automated company, even though in practice we didn’t do that because we were worried about safety and/or legal liability and/or we didn’t know how to prompt it etc”).