I think this is an interesting exercise, and it’s good to see more analyses of policy. But I don’t see this as an argument for the title ‘EAs should do more rough policy modeling’.
A post really interacting with that title would be showing how rough policy modeling is useful (ie, showing how it gets picked up by governments in actual policy, or has other positive downstream effects). Ideally, we’d get into how whether ‘rough policy modeling’ is more useful than than other similarly difficult activities EAs might do.
I think this is an interesting exercise, and it’s good to see more analyses of policy. But I don’t see this as an argument for the title ‘EAs should do more rough policy modeling’.
A post really interacting with that title would be showing how rough policy modeling is useful (ie, showing how it gets picked up by governments in actual policy, or has other positive downstream effects). Ideally, we’d get into how whether ‘rough policy modeling’ is more useful than than other similarly difficult activities EAs might do.