I think this is might be a case of the-devil-is-in-the-details.
Iām in favour of people scanning the horizon for major problems whose negative impacts are not yet being felt, and letting that have some significant impact on which nearer-term problems they wrestle with. I think that a large proportion of things that longtermists are working on are problems that are at least partially or potentially within our foresight horizons. It sounds like maybe you think there is current work happening which is foreseeably of little value: if so I think it could be productive to debate the details of that.
I think this is might be a case of the-devil-is-in-the-details.
Iām in favour of people scanning the horizon for major problems whose negative impacts are not yet being felt, and letting that have some significant impact on which nearer-term problems they wrestle with. I think that a large proportion of things that longtermists are working on are problems that are at least partially or potentially within our foresight horizons. It sounds like maybe you think there is current work happening which is foreseeably of little value: if so I think it could be productive to debate the details of that.