We should try to track the uncertainty in our all-things-considered beliefs, and we should take a portfolio approach.
It’s not enough to just track the uncertainty, you also have to have visibility into current resource allocation. The “defer if there’s an incentive to do so” idea helps here, because if there’s an incentive, that suggests someone with such visibility thinks there is an under-allocation.
Good points.
It’s not enough to just track the uncertainty, you also have to have visibility into current resource allocation. The “defer if there’s an incentive to do so” idea helps here, because if there’s an incentive, that suggests someone with such visibility thinks there is an under-allocation.