Yeah, so I basically think that that response feels “spiritually frequentist”, and is more likely to lead you to large errors than the approach I outlined (which feels more “spiritually Bayesian”), especially in cases like this where we’re trying to extrapolate significantly beyond the data we’ve been able to gather.
Yeah, so I basically think that that response feels “spiritually frequentist”, and is more likely to lead you to large errors than the approach I outlined (which feels more “spiritually Bayesian”), especially in cases like this where we’re trying to extrapolate significantly beyond the data we’ve been able to gather.