Ah, I was trying to look at the ratio of meta-charity work to money being moved at the same time. Since meta-charities fundraise often a year in advance, then as a flow of donations the proportion should be higher.
I do think that “You should measure and give to the most effective measured charities” is a much easier sell than “You should try to understand which of the things we can’t measure well could be even better than the ones we can”, so my prior is that these numbers aren’t surprising. I don’t feel I have a good understanding of the community breakdown; I expect I interact way disproportionately with people who are on board with the second statement. This means my error bars on the kind of estimate that you ask Ben for are large, and they don’t have too much effect on my all-things-considered belief.
Ah, I was trying to look at the ratio of meta-charity work to money being moved at the same time. Since meta-charities fundraise often a year in advance, then as a flow of donations the proportion should be higher.
I do think that “You should measure and give to the most effective measured charities” is a much easier sell than “You should try to understand which of the things we can’t measure well could be even better than the ones we can”, so my prior is that these numbers aren’t surprising. I don’t feel I have a good understanding of the community breakdown; I expect I interact way disproportionately with people who are on board with the second statement. This means my error bars on the kind of estimate that you ask Ben for are large, and they don’t have too much effect on my all-things-considered belief.