Very interesting writeup, I wasn’t aware of Hickel’s critique but it seems reasonable.
Do you think it matters who’s right? I suppose it’s important to know whether poverty is increasing or decreasing if you want to evaluate the consequences of historical policies or events, and even for general interest. But does it have any specific bearing on what we should do going forwards?
I think it matters quite a lot when it comes to assessing where to go from here: in particular, how cautious and conservative to be, and how favourable towards untested radical change.
If things have gotten way better and are likely to continue to get way better in the foreseeable future, then we should probably broadly stick with what we’re doing – some tinkering around the edges to fix obvious abuses, but no root-and-branch restructuring unless something goes obviously and profoundly wrong.
Whereas if things are failing to get better, or are actively getting worse, then it might be worth taking big risks in order to get out of the hole.
I’ve often had conversations with people to my left where they seem way too willing to smash stuff in the process of getting to deep systemic change, which is potentially sensible if you think we’re in a very bad place and getting worse but madness if you think we’re in an extremely unusually good place and getting better.
Thanks, this is a good question. I don’t think it has specific bearing on future actions, but does have some broader relevance. For example, longtermists have sometimes discussed the total value of the long-term future: in this context, we may be interested in whether things have been getting better or worse in order to extrapolate this trend forward.
(Though this is not why I wrote this post. - That was more because I happened to find it interesting personally.)
Of course, this trend extrapolation would only be one among many considerations. In addition, ideally we’d want a trend on the world’s total value, not a trend on just poverty. So e.g. the anthropocentrism would be a problem here.
Very interesting writeup, I wasn’t aware of Hickel’s critique but it seems reasonable.
Do you think it matters who’s right? I suppose it’s important to know whether poverty is increasing or decreasing if you want to evaluate the consequences of historical policies or events, and even for general interest. But does it have any specific bearing on what we should do going forwards?
I think it matters quite a lot when it comes to assessing where to go from here: in particular, how cautious and conservative to be, and how favourable towards untested radical change.
If things have gotten way better and are likely to continue to get way better in the foreseeable future, then we should probably broadly stick with what we’re doing – some tinkering around the edges to fix obvious abuses, but no root-and-branch restructuring unless something goes obviously and profoundly wrong.
Whereas if things are failing to get better, or are actively getting worse, then it might be worth taking big risks in order to get out of the hole.
I’ve often had conversations with people to my left where they seem way too willing to smash stuff in the process of getting to deep systemic change, which is potentially sensible if you think we’re in a very bad place and getting worse but madness if you think we’re in an extremely unusually good place and getting better.
Thanks, this is a good question. I don’t think it has specific bearing on future actions, but does have some broader relevance. For example, longtermists have sometimes discussed the total value of the long-term future: in this context, we may be interested in whether things have been getting better or worse in order to extrapolate this trend forward.
(Though this is not why I wrote this post. - That was more because I happened to find it interesting personally.)
Of course, this trend extrapolation would only be one among many considerations. In addition, ideally we’d want a trend on the world’s total value, not a trend on just poverty. So e.g. the anthropocentrism would be a problem here.