And critically, I appreciate the clarification that âdecreasing uncertaintyâ is your priorityâI didnât realize that from past posts, but I think your most recent one is clear on that.
Yes, I think I could have been clearer about it in the past. Now I am also more uncertain. I previously thought increasing agricultural was a pretty good heuristic for decreasing soil-animal-years, but it looks like it may easily increase these due to increasing soil-nematode-years.
When I look at my own uncertainties of this kind, it feels almost like lying to put a precise number on them (Iâm not saying others should feel this way, just that it is how I feel). So thatâs the most basic reason (among the other sort of theoretic reasons out there) that I feel attached to imprecise probabilities.
Makes sense. However, I would simply assign roughly the same probability to values (of a variable of interest) I feel very similarly about. The distribution representing the different possible values will be wider if one is indifferent between more of them. Yet, I do not understand how one could accept imprecise probabilities. In my mind, a given value is always less, more, or as likely as another. I would not be able to distinguish between the mass of 2 objects with 1 and 1.001 kg by just having them in my hands, but this does not mean their masses are incomparable.
Yes, I think I could have been clearer about it in the past. Now I am also more uncertain. I previously thought increasing agricultural was a pretty good heuristic for decreasing soil-animal-years, but it looks like it may easily increase these due to increasing soil-nematode-years.
Makes sense. However, I would simply assign roughly the same probability to values (of a variable of interest) I feel very similarly about. The distribution representing the different possible values will be wider if one is indifferent between more of them. Yet, I do not understand how one could accept imprecise probabilities. In my mind, a given value is always less, more, or as likely as another. I would not be able to distinguish between the mass of 2 objects with 1 and 1.001 kg by just having them in my hands, but this does not mean their masses are incomparable.