I don’t think anything “slow” can be existential or even catastrophic for our large technological society. There are many competitive power centers, many cultures, and our technological powers are immense when time for adaptation is available.
On the other hand, “fast collapse” is possible by nuclear war, and perhaps eletromagnetic pulse (natural or antropogenic) or AGI takeover.
It is true that enviromental and societal trends can increase the probability of some “fast collapse” scenarios (vg. climate change leading to migrations, conventional war and then nuclear scalation). But our world ends by bang, not by whimper.
I mostly agree with this—our powers and coordination are beyond impressive when we wield them. So a extinction risk would have to explain why we can’t or don’t use all of our resources to stop our own demise. Potential examples: feedback loops that are selfishly beneficial and prevent coordination, even if its leading to a slow death overall. Instances where the collapse is slow but locked-in ahead of time. So even if we decide to move heaven and earth to do something about it, its too late.
I don’t think anything “slow” can be existential or even catastrophic for our large technological society. There are many competitive power centers, many cultures, and our technological powers are immense when time for adaptation is available.
On the other hand, “fast collapse” is possible by nuclear war, and perhaps eletromagnetic pulse (natural or antropogenic) or AGI takeover.
It is true that enviromental and societal trends can increase the probability of some “fast collapse” scenarios (vg. climate change leading to migrations, conventional war and then nuclear scalation). But our world ends by bang, not by whimper.
I mostly agree with this—our powers and coordination are beyond impressive when we wield them. So a extinction risk would have to explain why we can’t or don’t use all of our resources to stop our own demise. Potential examples: feedback loops that are selfishly beneficial and prevent coordination, even if its leading to a slow death overall. Instances where the collapse is slow but locked-in ahead of time. So even if we decide to move heaven and earth to do something about it, its too late.