I think copying PredictIt would be pretty messy. I’m curious about the feasibility of using crypto, similar to CriptoKitties. It seems like several crypto groups did essentially a similar thing, and perhaps in the medium-term, they will be recognized as being legal in the United States.
“If OpenPhil initially promise $10m, and then later bump it to $20m, projects that have already sold their tokens cannot expand to take advantage of this increase, so it is effectively pure windfall with no incentive effect. ”
I agree cohorts are one solution. Another issue though, is that if the audience thought there was a decent chance of a bump, then the (“40% chance there would be a $10mil bump”) would be factored into the price.
Thanks! Some quick responses to parts.
I think copying PredictIt would be pretty messy. I’m curious about the feasibility of using crypto, similar to CriptoKitties. It seems like several crypto groups did essentially a similar thing, and perhaps in the medium-term, they will be recognized as being legal in the United States.
I agree cohorts are one solution. Another issue though, is that if the audience thought there was a decent chance of a bump, then the (“40% chance there would be a $10mil bump”) would be factored into the price.