Hey, thanks for the analysis, we might do something like that next time to improve consistency of our estimates, either as a team or as individuals. Note that some of the issues you point out are the cost of speed, of working a bit in the style of an emergency response team, rather than delaying a forecast for longer.
Still, I think that I’m more chill and less worried than you about these issues, because as you say the aggregation method was picked this up, and it doesn’t take the geometric mean of the forecasts that you colored in red, given that it excludes the minimum and maximum.
I also appreciated the individual comparison between chained probabilities and directly elicited ones, and it makes me even more pessimistic about using the directly elicited ones, particularly for <1% probabilities
Hey, thanks for the analysis, we might do something like that next time to improve consistency of our estimates, either as a team or as individuals. Note that some of the issues you point out are the cost of speed, of working a bit in the style of an emergency response team, rather than delaying a forecast for longer.
Still, I think that I’m more chill and less worried than you about these issues, because as you say the aggregation method was picked this up, and it doesn’t take the geometric mean of the forecasts that you colored in red, given that it excludes the minimum and maximum.
I also appreciated the individual comparison between chained probabilities and directly elicited ones, and it makes me even more pessimistic about using the directly elicited ones, particularly for <1% probabilities