There is internal discord within Samotsvety about the degree to which the magnitude of the difference between our current and former probabilities is indicative of a lack of accuracy. We Samotsvety updated our endline monthly probability of London being hit with a nuclear weapon by ~5x (0.055% vs 0.067 * 0.18 = 0.012%).
This number is before you made the correction, is that right? Can you edit this to highlight the fact that it (aiui) does not apply any more?
This number is before you made the correction, is that right? Can you edit this to highlight the fact that it (aiui) does not apply any more?
Done, thanks