Update 2022-10-19: These estimates feel a bit dated right now. The Swift Center has some slightly more recent estimates here, though they ask about the next six months, rather than the next month.
Overall I’d say that since these estimates were published, our uncertainty has gone a bit down.
I’ve polled a few more forecasters these past few weeks and they are lower than our initial aggregate. But aggregation doesn’t feel as meaningful given that each forecast was at slightly different times.
Update 2022-10-19: These estimates feel a bit dated right now. The Swift Center has some slightly more recent estimates here, though they ask about the next six months, rather than the next month.
Overall I’d say that since these estimates were published, our uncertainty has gone a bit down.
I’ve polled a few more forecasters these past few weeks and they are lower than our initial aggregate. But aggregation doesn’t feel as meaningful given that each forecast was at slightly different times.