What is the probability that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next MONTH?
Aggregate probability: 0.0859 (8.6%)
All probabilities: 0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07
Sorry if it sounds rude but If one person gives 0.001 and the other gives 0.27 shouldn’t it mean that at least one of the two is not good at forecasting?
So I agree that having a wide spread is worrying. At the same time, I’d expect the aggregate to be better if it incorporates different perspectives, even if they don’t come to agree.
What is the probability that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next MONTH?
Aggregate probability: 0.0859 (8.6%)
All probabilities: 0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07
Sorry if it sounds rude but If one person gives 0.001 and the other gives 0.27 shouldn’t it mean that at least one of the two is not good at forecasting?
No, if an individual forecast would prove to be off, that wouldn’t entail they’re not good at forecasting.
So I agree that having a wide spread is worrying. At the same time, I’d expect the aggregate to be better if it incorporates different perspectives, even if they don’t come to agree.