Geometric mean of the odds.
Aaand, you are right, I was missing the last estimate. Will change, though probably after the next hour.
Now fixed. The exercise also make me realize that these numbers are very sensitive to individual forecasters’ estimates, so we are looking to add more forecasters to our aggregate.
Geometric mean of the odds.
Aaand, you are right, I was missing the last estimate. Will change, though probably after the next hour.
Now fixed. The exercise also make me realize that these numbers are very sensitive to individual forecasters’ estimates, so we are looking to add more forecasters to our aggregate.