MichaelA🔸 comments on Critical Review of ‘The Precipice’: A Reassessment of the Risks of AI and Pandemics

[MichaelA🔸]

“I regard 1) as roughly as likely as not”

Isn’t this exactly the same as Toby’s estimate? (I actually don’t know, I have a vague sense that this is true and was stated in The Precipice.)

This indeed matches Ord’s views. He says on 80k:

Basically, you can look at my 10% [estimate of the existential risk from AI this century] as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future.

I think he also gives that 50% estimate in The Precipice, but I can’t remember for sure.