Thanks Rob, interesting question. Here are the correlation coefficients between pairs of scenarios (sorted from max to min):
So it looks like there are only weak correlations between some scenarios.
It’s worth bearing in mind that we asked respondents not to give an estimate for any scenarios they’d thought about for less than 1 hour. The correlations could be stronger if we didn’t have this requirement.
Fascinating results! I really appreciate the level of thought and precision you all put into the survey questions.
Were there any strong correlations between which of the five scenarios respondents considered more likely?
Thanks Rob, interesting question. Here are the correlation coefficients between pairs of scenarios (sorted from max to min):
So it looks like there are only weak correlations between some scenarios.
It’s worth bearing in mind that we asked respondents not to give an estimate for any scenarios they’d thought about for less than 1 hour. The correlations could be stronger if we didn’t have this requirement.