Tentative victory condition: Any novel pathogen that could be created in the near future, no matter how stealthy or fast-spreading, is widely recognized at least a month before most of the world’s population would have become infected. Assuming a fast doubling time of 3 days and a very simplistic doubling model, this would mean detecting at ~0.1% cumulative prevalence. Initial programs could probably achieve a robust version of this by the end of 2027 with a concerted effort andless than ~$100M/​year.
I’m getting ~50% infection after a month taking into account the slowing growth rate at higher prevalence. But what percent of people globally who hear about something strange growing exponentially in the waste water (with no symptoms) do you think will take drastic actions to protect themselves? And what is your probability that it will immediately become world news if detected?
This is great work!
I’m getting ~50% infection after a month taking into account the slowing growth rate at higher prevalence. But what percent of people globally who hear about something strange growing exponentially in the waste water (with no symptoms) do you think will take drastic actions to protect themselves? And what is your probability that it will immediately become world news if detected?