Extrapolated over a longtermist time horizon, the impacts could be monumental.
Most of your argument is not specific to UBI at all; any contemporary policy could be made to look very important if you:
Assume your policy will solve a major problem (instead of merely partially ameliorating)
Ignore all costs in your cost-benefit analysis
Assume the benefits will persist over very long time scales
Contrary to the your thoughts, I think a longtermist perspective makes UBI look considerably less attractive. In the future we will likely gain the ability to grow the population very quickly, whether through uploads or other technology. At this point, a guaranteed per-capita income becomes an invitation for groups to rapidly grow so they can seize more resources. This requires higher taxes, reducing the incentives to work, making this strategy look even better on a relative basis. (We already see a very mild version of this problem today).
I get your point about various policies looking very important if extrapolated far enough, but I disagree with your supposition that I (and other people who’ve advocated for UBI) am ignoring all costs in the cost-benefit analysis. There is a ton of research that has been done on this topic that considers your three points in detail, and I’ve seen it mostly come to these conclusions (although I 100% think we need more research and experiments):
The problem UBI policy solves by definition, poverty, is the root of all other ongoing problems in our society (excepting existential risks and climate/plastics problems). It is different and far more fundamental than any other policy because it establishes a strong foundation for economic security.
There are most certainly costs, primarily from higher taxes on the wealthy, but the benefits far outweigh them. The amount of damage (economically, socially, and mentally (WELLBYs)) that poverty causes is far larger than the cost of ending it.
One of the benefits of UBI should be a far more resilient, educated, and durable civilization. The longtermist case for UBI is that it will enable our society to persist longer and with greater prosperity.
In the future we will likely gain the ability to grow the population very quickly, whether through uploads or other technology. At this point, a guaranteed per-capita income becomes an invitation for groups to rapidly grow so they can seize more resources.
I’m not very convinced by this argument, although I’m interested to hear more about how you think it would play out. I’m not sure this fits with the nature of resource conflict within nations in the modern world. I think we will soon be moving past many kinds of resource scarcity, and I just don’t see why UBI would be a good way to seize resources (get rich). If we saw this happening, we could probably adjust policy to ensure fairness (we need a lot more research and philosophy done before building major baby factories). And why would the kids produced be interested in keeping this hustle going?
Population collapse is also a potential global issue so it may be good to incentivize people to make more people.
IMHO: The best argument against UBI as a longtermist priority is that it is possible (if not highly likely) that technology will advance to such a level (I hope within the next 50 years) that money becomes mostly meaningless and people upload themselves to computers or merge with AI.
If that’s the case, we should probably consider the benefit of spending money impactfully sooner rather than waiting for it to become useless. This might upset some people at the one fund I heard about that’s trying to save up money to spend impactfully in the far future when the time arises.
but I disagree with your supposition that I (and other people who’ve advocated for UBI) am ignoring all costs in the cost-benefit analysis.
You provided a sketch of a cost-benefit analysis in this post (the four bullet points) and it does not include any costs.
that money becomes mostly meaningless and people upload themselves to computers or merge with AI.
Uploads don’t mean money becomes useless; there is still need for a price mechanism to allocate scarce resources like electricity and semiconductors. Uploads can copy themselves instantly an arbitrary number of times; if each copy gets a new UBI, they can use that to buy the resources for another copy until we run out of resources. The ‘kids’ are interested in keeping the hustle going because they are essentially identical to the parent.
Now, there are ways around this problem. Maybe uploads don’t get the same rights as traditional humans (though this seems potentially quite unfair!). I think this is the most important distinctly longtermist consideration relevant to this issue, and directionally it seems negative.
You provided a sketch of a cost-benefit analysis in this post (the four bullet points) and it does not include any costs.
Thanks so much for pointing this out! You’re totally right. I just went and added one, and this is what I added:
What about the downsides?
The primary losers of UBI policy would be (extremely) wealthy people and people with very high incomes as they will get higher tax rates.
In 2022, 34.4% of American households saw a $100,000+ income. It would be reasonable to say households with over $100,000 annual income could probably be negatively affected by increased taxes.
34.4% * 332M = 115M Americans
They will likely lose some amount of WELLBYs as their lifestyles will be harder to maintain. Increased taxes, the resulting stress, and a slight decline in living standards could likely contribute to, (spitballing again because living with slightly less affluence isn’t the same as living in poverty), a loss of 0.05 WELLBYs per year. I think this could be a massive overestimation though because although some people would have higher taxes, they would also benefit from their friends, family, and neighbors being much more economically secure.
I think it’s more likely only people with over $500K in annual income would be negatively affected (and only as long as their family & friends are also in the same tax bracket). 1% of American households make 500K+ annually. The 1% comprises 1.32 Million Americans.
115M * 0.05 = 6M less WELLBYs/Yr
1.32M * 0.05 = 66K less WELLBYs/Yr
Based on this back-of-the-napkin cost-benefit estimation, it seems like the benefits by far outweigh the costs
33M − 6M = 27 M net positive WELLBYs annually
Regarding Sentience Factories:
I very much agree with your point that UBI goes totally out the window the instant we give rights to sentient computers or uploaded humans because they can infinitely copy themselves into new beings (and that we don’t know when or if that will happen).
At that point though, I think pretty much everything else normal about the world will go totally out the window as well, including currencies. We could end up in some kind of star trek situation + the TV show Upload. I agree that from a longtermist perspective that this possibility is directionally negative. Good point!
Most of your argument is not specific to UBI at all; any contemporary policy could be made to look very important if you:
Assume your policy will solve a major problem (instead of merely partially ameliorating)
Ignore all costs in your cost-benefit analysis
Assume the benefits will persist over very long time scales
Contrary to the your thoughts, I think a longtermist perspective makes UBI look considerably less attractive. In the future we will likely gain the ability to grow the population very quickly, whether through uploads or other technology. At this point, a guaranteed per-capita income becomes an invitation for groups to rapidly grow so they can seize more resources. This requires higher taxes, reducing the incentives to work, making this strategy look even better on a relative basis. (We already see a very mild version of this problem today).
I get your point about various policies looking very important if extrapolated far enough, but I disagree with your supposition that I (and other people who’ve advocated for UBI) am ignoring all costs in the cost-benefit analysis. There is a ton of research that has been done on this topic that considers your three points in detail, and I’ve seen it mostly come to these conclusions (although I 100% think we need more research and experiments):
The problem UBI policy solves by definition, poverty, is the root of all other ongoing problems in our society (excepting existential risks and climate/plastics problems). It is different and far more fundamental than any other policy because it establishes a strong foundation for economic security.
There are most certainly costs, primarily from higher taxes on the wealthy, but the benefits far outweigh them. The amount of damage (economically, socially, and mentally (WELLBYs)) that poverty causes is far larger than the cost of ending it.
One of the benefits of UBI should be a far more resilient, educated, and durable civilization. The longtermist case for UBI is that it will enable our society to persist longer and with greater prosperity.
I would highly recommend reading this thread by Scott Santens that discusses questions 1 & 2.
I’m not very convinced by this argument, although I’m interested to hear more about how you think it would play out. I’m not sure this fits with the nature of resource conflict within nations in the modern world. I think we will soon be moving past many kinds of resource scarcity, and I just don’t see why UBI would be a good way to seize resources (get rich). If we saw this happening, we could probably adjust policy to ensure fairness (we need a lot more research and philosophy done before building major baby factories). And why would the kids produced be interested in keeping this hustle going?
Population collapse is also a potential global issue so it may be good to incentivize people to make more people.
IMHO: The best argument against UBI as a longtermist priority is that it is possible (if not highly likely) that technology will advance to such a level (I hope within the next 50 years) that money becomes mostly meaningless and people upload themselves to computers or merge with AI.
If that’s the case, we should probably consider the benefit of spending money impactfully sooner rather than waiting for it to become useless. This might upset some people at the one fund I heard about that’s trying to save up money to spend impactfully in the far future when the time arises.
You provided a sketch of a cost-benefit analysis in this post (the four bullet points) and it does not include any costs.
Uploads don’t mean money becomes useless; there is still need for a price mechanism to allocate scarce resources like electricity and semiconductors. Uploads can copy themselves instantly an arbitrary number of times; if each copy gets a new UBI, they can use that to buy the resources for another copy until we run out of resources. The ‘kids’ are interested in keeping the hustle going because they are essentially identical to the parent.
Now, there are ways around this problem. Maybe uploads don’t get the same rights as traditional humans (though this seems potentially quite unfair!). I think this is the most important distinctly longtermist consideration relevant to this issue, and directionally it seems negative.
Thanks so much for pointing this out! You’re totally right. I just went and added one, and this is what I added:
Regarding Sentience Factories:
I very much agree with your point that UBI goes totally out the window the instant we give rights to sentient computers or uploaded humans because they can infinitely copy themselves into new beings (and that we don’t know when or if that will happen).
At that point though, I think pretty much everything else normal about the world will go totally out the window as well, including currencies. We could end up in some kind of star trek situation + the TV show Upload. I agree that from a longtermist perspective that this possibility is directionally negative. Good point!