: “Peter Wildeford looks at the chances of accidental nuclear war (a), by giving the chance of a nuclear incident based on historical frequency using Laplace’s law, and then his”
Peter Wildeford looks at the chances of accidental nuclear war (a), by giving the chance of a nuclear incident based on historical frequency of close calls using Laplace’s law, and then another application of Laplace’s law to the chance that a nuclear close call will escalate. Personally I’d be a bit higher than him because of anthropic effects.
missing something here
: “Peter Wildeford looks at the chances of accidental nuclear war (a), by giving the chance of a nuclear incident based on historical frequency using Laplace’s law, and then his”
Thanks, changed to: