Someone told me they don’t bet as a matter of principle. And that this means EA/Rats take their opinions less seriously as a result. Some thoughts
I respect individual EAs preferences. I regularly tell friends to do things they are excited about, to look after themselves, etc etc. If you don’t want to do something but feel you ought to, maybe think about why, but I will support you not doing it. If you have a blanket ban on gambling, fair enough. You are allowed to not do things because you don’t want to
Gambling is addictive, if you have a problem with it, don’t do it
Betting is a useful tool. I just do take opinions a bit less seriously if people don’t do the simple thing to put their money where their mouths are. And so a blanket ban is a slight cost. Imagine if I said I had a blanket ban on double cruxxing, or giving to animal welfare charities. It’s a thing I am allowed to do, but it does just seem a bit worse
To me, this seems like something else is actually going on. Perhaps it feels like “will you bet on it” is a way that certain people can twist my arm in a way that makes me feel uncomfortable? Perhaps the people who say this have been cruel to me in the past. I don’t know, but I sense there is something else going on. If you don’t bet as a blanket policy, could you tell me why?
I don’t bet because I feel it’s a slippery slope. I also strongly dislike how opinions and debates in EA are monetised, as this strengthens even more the neoliberal vibe EA already has, so my drive for refraining to do this in EA is stronger than outside.
Edit: and I too have gotten dismissed by EAs for it in the past.
I don’t bet because it’s not a way to actually make money given the frictional costs to set it up, including my own ignorance about the proper procedure and having to remember it and keep enough capital for it. Ironically, people who are betting in this subculture are usually cargo culting the idea of wealth-maximization with the aesthetics of betting with the implicit assumption that the stakes of actual money are enough to lead to more correct beliefs when following the incentives really means not betting at all. If convenient, universal prediction markets weren’t regulated into nonexistence then I would sing a different tune.
I guess I do think the “wrong beliefs should cost you” is a lot of the gains. I guess I also think that bets should be able to be at scale of the disagreement is important, but I think that’s a much more niche view.
There are a number of possible reasons that the individual might not want to talk about publicly:
A concern about gambling being potentially addictive for them;
Being relatively risk-averse in their personal capacity (and/or believing that their risk tolerance is better deployed for more meaningful things than random bets);
Being more financially constrained than their would-be counterparts; and
Awareness of, and discomfort with, the increased power the betting norm could give people with more money.
On the third point: the bet amount that would be seen as meaningful will vary based on the person’s individual circumstances. It is emotionally tough to say—no, I don’t have much money, $10 (or whatever) would be a meaningful bet for me even though it might take $100 (or whatever) to be meaningful to you.
On the fourth point: if you have more financial resources, you can feel freer with your bets while other people need to be more constrained. That gives you more access to bet-offers as a rhetorical tool to promote your positions than people with fewer resources. It’s understandable that people with fewer resources might see that as a financial bludgeon, even if not intended as such.
I have yet to see anyone in the EA/rat world make a bet for sums that matter, so I really don’t take these bets very seriously. They also aren’t a great way to uncover people’s true probabilities because if you are betting for money that matters you are obviously incentivized to try to negotiate what you think are the worst possible odds for the person on the other side that they might be dumb enough to accept.
If anything… I probably take people less seriously if they do bet (not saying that’s good or bad, but just being honest), especially if there’s a bookmaker/platform taking a cut.
Someone told me they don’t bet as a matter of principle. And that this means EA/Rats take their opinions less seriously as a result. Some thoughts
I respect individual EAs preferences. I regularly tell friends to do things they are excited about, to look after themselves, etc etc. If you don’t want to do something but feel you ought to, maybe think about why, but I will support you not doing it. If you have a blanket ban on gambling, fair enough. You are allowed to not do things because you don’t want to
Gambling is addictive, if you have a problem with it, don’t do it
Betting is a useful tool. I just do take opinions a bit less seriously if people don’t do the simple thing to put their money where their mouths are. And so a blanket ban is a slight cost. Imagine if I said I had a blanket ban on double cruxxing, or giving to animal welfare charities. It’s a thing I am allowed to do, but it does just seem a bit worse
To me, this seems like something else is actually going on. Perhaps it feels like “will you bet on it” is a way that certain people can twist my arm in a way that makes me feel uncomfortable? Perhaps the people who say this have been cruel to me in the past. I don’t know, but I sense there is something else going on. If you don’t bet as a blanket policy, could you tell me why?
I don’t bet because I feel it’s a slippery slope. I also strongly dislike how opinions and debates in EA are monetised, as this strengthens even more the neoliberal vibe EA already has, so my drive for refraining to do this in EA is stronger than outside.
Edit: and I too have gotten dismissed by EAs for it in the past.
I don’t want you to do something you don’t want to.
A slippery slope to what?
To gambling on anything else and taking an actual financial risk.
Yeah, I guess if you think there is a risk of gambling addiction, don’t do it.
But I don’t know that that’s a risk for many.
Also I think many of us take a financial risk by being involved in EA. We are making big financial choices.
There’s a difference between using money to help others and using it for betting?
Yes obviously, but not in the sense that you are investing resources.
Is there a difference between the financial risk of a bet and of a standard investment? Not really, no.
I don’t bet because it’s not a way to actually make money given the frictional costs to set it up, including my own ignorance about the proper procedure and having to remember it and keep enough capital for it. Ironically, people who are betting in this subculture are usually cargo culting the idea of wealth-maximization with the aesthetics of betting with the implicit assumption that the stakes of actual money are enough to lead to more correct beliefs when following the incentives really means not betting at all. If convenient, universal prediction markets weren’t regulated into nonexistence then I would sing a different tune.
I guess I do think the “wrong beliefs should cost you” is a lot of the gains. I guess I also think that bets should be able to be at scale of the disagreement is important, but I think that’s a much more niche view.
There are a number of possible reasons that the individual might not want to talk about publicly:
A concern about gambling being potentially addictive for them;
Being relatively risk-averse in their personal capacity (and/or believing that their risk tolerance is better deployed for more meaningful things than random bets);
Being more financially constrained than their would-be counterparts; and
Awareness of, and discomfort with, the increased power the betting norm could give people with more money.
On the third point: the bet amount that would be seen as meaningful will vary based on the person’s individual circumstances. It is emotionally tough to say—no, I don’t have much money, $10 (or whatever) would be a meaningful bet for me even though it might take $100 (or whatever) to be meaningful to you.
On the fourth point: if you have more financial resources, you can feel freer with your bets while other people need to be more constrained. That gives you more access to bet-offers as a rhetorical tool to promote your positions than people with fewer resources. It’s understandable that people with fewer resources might see that as a financial bludgeon, even if not intended as such.
I think the first one is good, the not so much.
I think there is something else going on here.
I have yet to see anyone in the EA/rat world make a bet for sums that matter, so I really don’t take these bets very seriously. They also aren’t a great way to uncover people’s true probabilities because if you are betting for money that matters you are obviously incentivized to try to negotiate what you think are the worst possible odds for the person on the other side that they might be dumb enough to accept.
kind of fair. I’m pretty sure I’ve seen $1000s
If anything… I probably take people less seriously if they do bet (not saying that’s good or bad, but just being honest), especially if there’s a bookmaker/platform taking a cut.
I think this is more about 1-1 bets.
I guess it depends if they win or lose on average. I still think knowing I barely win is useful self knowledge.