Epistemically I’m confident enough in this opportunity that I’m happy to broadcast it to the whole EA Forum with a top level post. I spent nearly an hour thinking about this and right now think the chance that new sign-ups get $100 gift cards is about 25%. I don’t want to encourage others to take more time to think about this by offering a bet, but I would encourage others who already are going to take the time to read Ray Dalio’s tweets to share their quick forecasts to sanity check mine.
Epistemically I’m confident enough in this opportunity that I’m happy to broadcast it to the whole EA Forum with a top level post. I spent nearly an hour thinking about this and right now think the chance that new sign-ups get $100 gift cards is about 25%. I don’t want to encourage others to take more time to think about this by offering a bet, but I would encourage others who already are going to take the time to read Ray Dalio’s tweets to share their quick forecasts to sanity check mine.
Anywhere between 25% and 40% sounds reasonable to me.