First, the figures in our post should not be taken as “estimates of the value of a vote”. Rather, we point to various ways you could make such an estimate, and show that with plausible assumptions, you get very high figures. We’re not saying these are the figures we believe.
Second, the figures were in terms of “US social value”, which can be understood as something like “the value of making a random American $1 wealthier.
You seem to be measuring the value of your time in “GiveWell dollars” i.e. the value of donations to top recommended GiveWell charities.
To convert between the two is tricky, but it’s something like:
How much better is it to make the global poor wealthier vs. Americans (suppose 30x)
How much better is SCI than cash transfers? (suppose 5x)
In total that gives you 150x difference.
So $1m of US social value ~ $6700 GiveWell dollars.
Has anyone calculated a rough estimate for the value of an undergraduate student’s hour? Assume they attend a top UK university, currently are unemployed, and plan to pursue earning to give. Thanks in advance for any info or links!
It’s not an estimate, just some relevant argumentation, but see Katja’s post here. Maybe $30-$150 but it would depend on a lot of factors and I haven’t thought about it very hard.
I think as an undergraduate you have to be very sensitive about marginal time, since that can vary drastically. When you’re young, you’re at the height of being able to invest in yourself, so I’d make that the number one priority as long as you are able to afford it.
“So if I could be expected to work 4380 hours over 2016-2019, earn $660K (95%: $580K to $860K) and donate $160K, that’s an expected earnings of $150.68 per hour worked. [...] I consider my entire earnings to be the altruistic value of this project.”
In Defense of Multiprojecting: “I find that I often have separate energies and that I can be refreshed from switching tasks and draw from time that otherwise would not have been used productively.” I think this is a valid point that more people could benefit from considering
If you have greater uncertainty over the cost-effectiveness of something, there’s more value in investigating the cost-effectiveness, either by doing that thing for the value of information (making uncertainty an argument in favor of doing the thing) or by researching it.
Regarding political activism, I’m not sure that the value is less when there’s not a Presidential election. Congress and state legislature races are way more neglected than the presidency, and fewer people vote in midterm elections. Activism might be more impactful on the margin there.
2018 congressional races will likely determine how much Trump can fulfill his agenda in his 3rd and 4th year, and state legislature races will have a large effect for redistricting.
Hey Peter,
Quick comments on the value of a vote stuff.
First, the figures in our post should not be taken as “estimates of the value of a vote”. Rather, we point to various ways you could make such an estimate, and show that with plausible assumptions, you get very high figures. We’re not saying these are the figures we believe.
Second, the figures were in terms of “US social value”, which can be understood as something like “the value of making a random American $1 wealthier.
You seem to be measuring the value of your time in “GiveWell dollars” i.e. the value of donations to top recommended GiveWell charities.
To convert between the two is tricky, but it’s something like:
How much better is it to make the global poor wealthier vs. Americans (suppose 30x)
How much better is SCI than cash transfers? (suppose 5x)
In total that gives you 150x difference.
So $1m of US social value ~ $6700 GiveWell dollars.
Thanks Ben, I revised my estimate in light of your comment! Hopefully I also phrased 80K’s conclusion more correctly.
Has anyone calculated a rough estimate for the value of an undergraduate student’s hour? Assume they attend a top UK university, currently are unemployed, and plan to pursue earning to give. Thanks in advance for any info or links!
It’s not an estimate, just some relevant argumentation, but see Katja’s post here. Maybe $30-$150 but it would depend on a lot of factors and I haven’t thought about it very hard.
I think as an undergraduate you have to be very sensitive about marginal time, since that can vary drastically. When you’re young, you’re at the height of being able to invest in yourself, so I’d make that the number one priority as long as you are able to afford it.
“So if I could be expected to work 4380 hours over 2016-2019, earn $660K (95%: $580K to $860K) and donate $160K, that’s an expected earnings of $150.68 per hour worked. [...] I consider my entire earnings to be the altruistic value of this project.”
What about taxes?
Yeah, that’s a good point, since it scales with my income. I should include that in the model.
In Defense of Multiprojecting: “I find that I often have separate energies and that I can be refreshed from switching tasks and draw from time that otherwise would not have been used productively.” I think this is a valid point that more people could benefit from considering
If you have greater uncertainty over the cost-effectiveness of something, there’s more value in investigating the cost-effectiveness, either by doing that thing for the value of information (making uncertainty an argument in favor of doing the thing) or by researching it.
Regarding political activism, I’m not sure that the value is less when there’s not a Presidential election. Congress and state legislature races are way more neglected than the presidency, and fewer people vote in midterm elections. Activism might be more impactful on the margin there.
2018 congressional races will likely determine how much Trump can fulfill his agenda in his 3rd and 4th year, and state legislature races will have a large effect for redistricting.