Edits based on feedback from LessWrong and the EA Forum:
EDITS: - Added new ‘Definitions’ section to introduction to explain definitions such as ‘AI safety’, ‘researcher’ and the difference between technical and non-technical research.
NON-TECHNICAL - CSER: 5-5-10 → 2-5-15 - Delete BERI from the list of non-technical research organizations - Delete SERI from the list of non-technical research organizations - Levelhume Centre: 5-10-70 (Low confidence) → 2-5-15 (Medium confidence) - FLI: 5-5-20 → 3-5-15 - Add OpenPhil: 2-5-15 - Epoch: 5-10-15 → 2-4-10 - Add ‘Other’: 5-10-50
Edits based on feedback from LessWrong and the EA Forum:
EDITS:
- Added new ‘Definitions’ section to introduction to explain definitions such as ‘AI safety’, ‘researcher’ and the difference between technical and non-technical research.
UPDATED ESTIMATES (lower bound, estimate, upper bound):
TECHNICAL
- CHAI: 10-30-60 → 5-25-50
- FHI: 10-10-40 → 5-10-30
- MIRI: 10-15-30 → 5-10-20
NON-TECHNICAL
- CSER: 5-5-10 → 2-5-15
- Delete BERI from the list of non-technical research organizations
- Delete SERI from the list of non-technical research organizations
- Levelhume Centre: 5-10-70 (Low confidence) → 2-5-15 (Medium confidence)
- FLI: 5-5-20 → 3-5-15
- Add OpenPhil: 2-5-15
- Epoch: 5-10-15 → 2-4-10
- Add ‘Other’: 5-10-50
More minor suggestions:
OpenAI non-technical: there are more than 5.
AI Impacts non-technical: there are exactly 5.
I would have said Epoch is at least 5 FTEs (disagreeing with Mauricio).
Better estimating the number of independent technical researchers seems pretty important and tractable.
(Edit: also many people on the CHAI website don’t actually do AI safety research, but definitely more than 5 do.)
Edit: updated OpenAI from 5 to 10.
From their website, AI Impacts currently has 2 researchers and 2 support staff (the current total estimate is 3).
The current estimate for Epoch is 4 which is similar to most estimates here.
I’m trying to come up with a more accurate estimate for independent researchers and ‘Other’ researchers.