I don’t think this would be a good reaction because:
Nordhaus’s paper was only formally published now, but isn’t substantially newer than Roodman’s work. Nordhaus’s paper was available as NBER working paper since at least 2018, and has been widely discussed among longtermists since then (e.g. I remember a conversation in fall 2018, there may have been earlier ones). [ETA: Actually Nordhaus’s paper has circulated as a working/discussion paper since at least September 2015, and was e.g. mentioned in this piece of longtermist work from 2017.]
I’ve only had the chance to skim Roodman’s work, but my quick impression is that it isn’t straightforwardly the case that Nordhaus’s model is “more detailed and trustworthy”. Rather, it seems to me that both models are more detailed along different dimensions: Roodman’s model explicitly incorporates noise/stochasticity, and in this sense is significantly more mathematically complex/sophisticated. On the other hand, Nordhaus’s model incorporates more theoretical assumptions, e.g. about different types of “factors of production” and their relationship as represented by a “production function”, similar to typical economic growth models. (Whereas Roodman is mostly fitting a model to a trend of a single quantity, in a way that’s more agnostic about the theoretical mechanisms generating that trend.)
I think in this case mostly informal personal conversations (which can include conversations e.g. within particular org’s Slack groups or similar). It might also have been a slight overstatement that the paper was “widely discussed”—this impression might be due to a “selection effect” of me having noticed the paper early and being interested in such work.
I don’t think this would be a good reaction because:
Nordhaus’s paper was only formally published now, but isn’t substantially newer than Roodman’s work. Nordhaus’s paper was available as NBER working paper since at least 2018, and has been widely discussed among longtermists since then (e.g. I remember a conversation in fall 2018, there may have been earlier ones). [ETA: Actually Nordhaus’s paper has circulated as a working/discussion paper since at least September 2015, and was e.g. mentioned in this piece of longtermist work from 2017.]
There are other similar papers, e.g. by Aghion et al. See e.g. here (there is now also an edited volume of “Econ of AI” conference papers) and the GovAI webinar with Jones & Jones (need to scroll down on that page).
I’ve only had the chance to skim Roodman’s work, but my quick impression is that it isn’t straightforwardly the case that Nordhaus’s model is “more detailed and trustworthy”. Rather, it seems to me that both models are more detailed along different dimensions: Roodman’s model explicitly incorporates noise/stochasticity, and in this sense is significantly more mathematically complex/sophisticated. On the other hand, Nordhaus’s model incorporates more theoretical assumptions, e.g. about different types of “factors of production” and their relationship as represented by a “production function”, similar to typical economic growth models. (Whereas Roodman is mostly fitting a model to a trend of a single quantity, in a way that’s more agnostic about the theoretical mechanisms generating that trend.)
As a matter of interest, where do papers such as this usually get discussed? Is it in personal conversation or in some particular online location?
I think in this case mostly informal personal conversations (which can include conversations e.g. within particular org’s Slack groups or similar). It might also have been a slight overstatement that the paper was “widely discussed”—this impression might be due to a “selection effect” of me having noticed the paper early and being interested in such work.