I think a big challenge is that often different interventions appear better or worse depending on the time horizon. That’s apparent in this case: if corporate campaigns get a dozen companies to commit to buying cage-free eggs, that will have benefits in a matter of years. It’s not clear what the long-term impacts will be (maybe a changing corporate culture that becomes more conscious of animal welfare? Maybe higher prices, leading to lower consumption of animal products?) but the theory of change isn’t normally spelled out over that time horizon. For alternative proteins, the short-term benefits are rather modest, and the much more important benefits seem long-term, if it can lead to a much bigger plant-based market, there’s a high chance that people will be more willing to consider changing their diet (and their ethics) completely.
I would really like to see more long-term theories of change within animal advocacy. I even find it a bit odd that it isn’t more normal, given the buzz around longtermism within EA.
I think a big challenge is that often different interventions appear better or worse depending on the time horizon. That’s apparent in this case: if corporate campaigns get a dozen companies to commit to buying cage-free eggs, that will have benefits in a matter of years. It’s not clear what the long-term impacts will be (maybe a changing corporate culture that becomes more conscious of animal welfare? Maybe higher prices, leading to lower consumption of animal products?) but the theory of change isn’t normally spelled out over that time horizon. For alternative proteins, the short-term benefits are rather modest, and the much more important benefits seem long-term, if it can lead to a much bigger plant-based market, there’s a high chance that people will be more willing to consider changing their diet (and their ethics) completely.
I would really like to see more long-term theories of change within animal advocacy. I even find it a bit odd that it isn’t more normal, given the buzz around longtermism within EA.