One thing I didn’t see mentioned in the post: How an “earn-to-save” default might change the public image of EA.
It seems pretty important to the identity of EA, at least in the sense of how EA is seen by newcomers/the public, that most of us actually donate a reasonable sum of money. The average American gives roughly 2% of their income. If a sizable percentage of people within EA are doing 1%, that seems like it could have undesirable effects on the way we’re viewed by the outside world.
High donations shouldn’t be the only strategy, and it’s plausible that they shouldn’t even be the most popular strategy, but a ton of people who joined EA did so because they were inspired by people who were living pretty frugally and giving 10% or more, even if those 10% donors might not have been behaving optimally themselves. That’s worth keeping in mind.
(Having a “save now, give later” framing would help, but would also invite questions about how much we can really be trusted to follow through on the “give later” part.)