I’m also a heavy sympathizer towards longtermism. But I don’t know that the dilemma needs to be framed as an either/or. Many of the endeavors I’ve personally gotten behind—bringing new reversible male contraceptives to market and fundamentally improving elections—impact the short-to-mid-term future as well as the long-term future.
That’s because these interventions have the ability to have a positive impact now, plus their staying power impacts the future. That contrasts with interventions that deal with consumables or models where you have to keep adding the same large inputs to sustain future good.
Of course, these interventions aren’t the only ones. We can think of others such as with charities like SENS. That fits the category because any technology developed doesn’t go away and creates benefit into the far future. Good Food Institute has many of these features as well because it focuses on technology that can permanently affect the market yet can also affect people and animals now.
Of course, one may argue that these types of interventions may be somewhat erroneous given they could happen anyway. Even if that’s the case, speeding along their timeline helps many people (or other sentient beings) who may not have been helped at all. Or absent the intervention, they wouldn’t be helped to the same extent given how far along the intervention was in time.
Perhaps this is a way to have your cake and eat it too. You could focus on interventions that affect the near-term and the future rather than just the future. This way, you’re also much more likely to see the interventions blossom or at the very least see their buds begin to form during your lifetime. And getting to see at least part of the excitement firsthand is a nice bonus.
[This comment just responds to one part of what you said, not the whole thing]
Even if that’s the case, speeding along their timeline helps many people (or other sentient beings) who may not have been helped at all.
I do think that that can be valuable, but I personally expect that changing “where civilization ends up” is much more important than changing how fast we get there. To expand on my thinking on this, here’s a section from a post I drafted last year but keep not quite getting around to polishing + publishing:
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Beckstead writes that our actions might, instead of or in addition to “slightly or significantly alter[ing] the world’s development trajectory”, speed up development:
In many cases, ripple effects from good ordinary actions speed up development. For example, saving some child’s life might cause his country’s economy to develop very slightly more quickly, or make certain technological or cultural innovations arrive more quickly.
Technically, I think that increases in the pace of development are trajectory changes. At the least, they would change the steepness of one part of the curve. We can illustrate this with the following graph, where actions aimed at speeding up development would be intended to increase the likelihood of the green trajectory relative to the navy one:
This seems to be the sort of picture Benjamin Todd has in mind when he writes:
One way to help the future we don’t think is a contender is speeding it up. Some people who want to help the future focus on bringing about technological progress, like developing new vaccines, and it’s true that these create long-term benefits. However, we think what most matters from a long-term perspective is where we end up, rather than how fast we get there. Discovering a new vaccine probably means we get it earlier, rather than making it happen at all.
However, I think speeding up development could also affect “where we end up”, for two reasons.
Firstly, if it makes us spread to the stars earlier and faster, this may increase the amount of resources we can ultimately use. We can illustrate this with the following graph, where again actions aimed at speeding up development would be intended to increase the likelihood of the green trajectory relative to the navy one:
Secondly, more generally, speeding up development could affect which trajectory we’re likely to take. For example, faster economic growth might decrease existential risk by reducing international tensions, or increase it by allowing us less time to prepare for and adjust to each new risky technology. Arguably, this might be best thought of as a way in which speeding up development could, as a side effect, affect other types of trajectory change.
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(The draft post was meant to be just “A typology of strategies for influencing the future”, rather than an argument for one strategy over another, so I just tried to clarify possibilities and lay out possible arguments. If I was instead explaining my own views, I’d give more space to arguments along the lines of Todd’s.)
I know it’s a struggle to balance polishing and publishing. I find it challenging to balance myself. But I’d love to read your post when you have it up all the way. I think a lot of us are curious about the interaction between longtermism, immediacy, and philanthropic investment.
I’m also a heavy sympathizer towards longtermism. But I don’t know that the dilemma needs to be framed as an either/or. Many of the endeavors I’ve personally gotten behind—bringing new reversible male contraceptives to market and fundamentally improving elections—impact the short-to-mid-term future as well as the long-term future.
That’s because these interventions have the ability to have a positive impact now, plus their staying power impacts the future. That contrasts with interventions that deal with consumables or models where you have to keep adding the same large inputs to sustain future good.
Of course, these interventions aren’t the only ones. We can think of others such as with charities like SENS. That fits the category because any technology developed doesn’t go away and creates benefit into the far future. Good Food Institute has many of these features as well because it focuses on technology that can permanently affect the market yet can also affect people and animals now.
Of course, one may argue that these types of interventions may be somewhat erroneous given they could happen anyway. Even if that’s the case, speeding along their timeline helps many people (or other sentient beings) who may not have been helped at all. Or absent the intervention, they wouldn’t be helped to the same extent given how far along the intervention was in time.
Perhaps this is a way to have your cake and eat it too. You could focus on interventions that affect the near-term and the future rather than just the future. This way, you’re also much more likely to see the interventions blossom or at the very least see their buds begin to form during your lifetime. And getting to see at least part of the excitement firsthand is a nice bonus.
[This comment just responds to one part of what you said, not the whole thing]
I do think that that can be valuable, but I personally expect that changing “where civilization ends up” is much more important than changing how fast we get there. To expand on my thinking on this, here’s a section from a post I drafted last year but keep not quite getting around to polishing + publishing:
---
Beckstead writes that our actions might, instead of or in addition to “slightly or significantly alter[ing] the world’s development trajectory”, speed up development:
Technically, I think that increases in the pace of development are trajectory changes. At the least, they would change the steepness of one part of the curve. We can illustrate this with the following graph, where actions aimed at speeding up development would be intended to increase the likelihood of the green trajectory relative to the navy one:
This seems to be the sort of picture Benjamin Todd has in mind when he writes:
However, I think speeding up development could also affect “where we end up”, for two reasons.
Firstly, if it makes us spread to the stars earlier and faster, this may increase the amount of resources we can ultimately use. We can illustrate this with the following graph, where again actions aimed at speeding up development would be intended to increase the likelihood of the green trajectory relative to the navy one:
Secondly, more generally, speeding up development could affect which trajectory we’re likely to take. For example, faster economic growth might decrease existential risk by reducing international tensions, or increase it by allowing us less time to prepare for and adjust to each new risky technology. Arguably, this might be best thought of as a way in which speeding up development could, as a side effect, affect other types of trajectory change.
---
(The draft post was meant to be just “A typology of strategies for influencing the future”, rather than an argument for one strategy over another, so I just tried to clarify possibilities and lay out possible arguments. If I was instead explaining my own views, I’d give more space to arguments along the lines of Todd’s.)
I know it’s a struggle to balance polishing and publishing. I find it challenging to balance myself. But I’d love to read your post when you have it up all the way. I think a lot of us are curious about the interaction between longtermism, immediacy, and philanthropic investment.