A 7% probability of getting an OP-equivalent grantmaking job seems high to me
It comes from this number of relevant organizations
this level of Open Philanthropy-ness of those organizations
and this probability of succeeding in any particular job application
I’m sure all of these are wrong/up for debate!
How many (impact-weighted?) roles are there, and at what orgs?
Impact weighting is done at the org-level, above. The number of applicants is the reciprocal of the fraction of grants the grantmaker is responsible for (so, on average, 1⁄0.082 = 12, although this is driven by 25% of Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations with smaller effective staffs).
Lots to debate here too! You can look into this yourself by copy-pasting the code into squiggle playground.
I’d also worry about self-selection and invitations (to apply) to become a grantmaker skewing things.
“Skewing” undersells the issue! It would totally change the calculations. You can see more in the first part of this comment.
Answering in turn:
It comes from this number of relevant organizations
this level of Open Philanthropy-ness of those organizations
and this probability of succeeding in any particular job application
I’m sure all of these are wrong/up for debate!
Impact weighting is done at the org-level, above. The number of applicants is the reciprocal of the fraction of grants the grantmaker is responsible for (so, on average, 1⁄0.082 = 12, although this is driven by 25% of Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations with smaller effective staffs).
Lots to debate here too! You can look into this yourself by copy-pasting the code into squiggle playground.
“Skewing” undersells the issue! It would totally change the calculations. You can see more in the first part of this comment.