A 7% probability of getting an OP-equivalent grantmaking job seems high to me
It comes from this number of relevant organizations
this level of Open Philanthropy-ness of those organizations
and this probability of succeeding in any particular job application
I’m sure all of these are wrong/up for debate!
How many (impact-weighted?) roles are there, and at what orgs?
Impact weighting is done at the org-level, above. The number of applicants is the reciprocal of the fraction of grants the grantmaker is responsible for (so, on average, 1⁄0.082 = 12, although this is driven by 25% of Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations with smaller effective staffs).
Lots to debate here too! You can look into this yourself by copy-pasting the code into squiggle playground.
I’d also worry about self-selection and invitations (to apply) to become a grantmaker skewing things.
“Skewing” undersells the issue! It would totally change the calculations. You can see more in the first part of this comment.
Thanks for writing this! I’m glad to see more concrete modeling like this. A few concerns/questions:
A 7% probability of getting an OP-equivalent grantmaking job seems high to me, but I might not have a good sense of what roles are out there.
How many (impact-weighted?) roles are there, and at what orgs?
I’d also worry about self-selection and invitations (to apply) to become a grantmaker skewing things.
Answering in turn:
It comes from this number of relevant organizations
this level of Open Philanthropy-ness of those organizations
and this probability of succeeding in any particular job application
I’m sure all of these are wrong/up for debate!
Impact weighting is done at the org-level, above. The number of applicants is the reciprocal of the fraction of grants the grantmaker is responsible for (so, on average, 1⁄0.082 = 12, although this is driven by 25% of Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations with smaller effective staffs).
Lots to debate here too! You can look into this yourself by copy-pasting the code into squiggle playground.
“Skewing” undersells the issue! It would totally change the calculations. You can see more in the first part of this comment.